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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Cubs at Reds · Sep 20, 2026

Cubs
9
Final
Reds
1
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Cubs 90% · tied 5% · Reds 5%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
9
1
Est. bases
24.1
14.9
Total bases
24
7
Home runs
3
1
Barrels
5
2
Walks/HBP
4
1
Strikeouts
10
8
GIDP
0
1
Stolen bases
1
2
Left on base
8
4
Errors
1
0

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Cubs lead on deserved runs by 3.9.

Reds deserved lead ↑
-8-6-4-20-3.9-8
Cubs deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Cubs +0.8 (80% band -2.0 to 0.0) · this inning -0.8 deserved runs · actual Cubs +1Through inning 2: deserved Cubs +1.1 (80% band -3.0 to 0.0) · this inning -0.2 deserved runs · actual Cubs +1Through inning 3: deserved Cubs +4.4 (80% band -7.0 to -2.0) · this inning -3.3 deserved runs · actual Cubs +5Through inning 4: deserved Cubs +2.2 (80% band -5.0 to +1.0) · this inning +2.2 deserved runs · actual Cubs +4Through inning 5: deserved Cubs +4.8 (80% band -8.0 to -2.0) · this inning -2.6 deserved runs · actual Cubs +7Through inning 6: deserved Cubs +4.5 (80% band -8.0 to -1.0) · this inning +0.3 deserved runs · actual Cubs +7Through inning 7: deserved Cubs +4.4 (80% band -8.0 to -1.0) · this inning +0.1 deserved runs · actual Cubs +7Through inning 8: deserved Cubs +4.9 (80% band -8.0 to -2.0) · this inning -0.5 deserved runs · actual Cubs +8Through inning 9: deserved Cubs +3.9 (80% band -7.0 to -1.0) · this inning +0.9 deserved runs · actual Cubs +8123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualReds sideCubs side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Cubs
Reds
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Cubs
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Reds
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Cubs
Reds
Carson Spiers 17 BF
13.0
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Cubspitching
David Peterson6.0 IP · 22 BF · 7 K · 1 BB
0.7 bases cost

The Sinker got hit — 3 balls in play worth 3.2 expected bases. His Slider did the damage prevention — 1.2 bases better than average on 19 pitches.

Caleb Thielbar1.0 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.9 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Curveball6 thrown (33% tonight, season 25%) · 1 whiff
+0.3 bases cost
Slider3 thrown (17% tonight, season 22%)
−0.3 bases saved
Edward Cabrera1.0 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
even

About an average night — +0.0 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Curveball3 thrown (33% tonight, season 20%) · 1 whiff
−0.2 bases saved
Colin Rea1.0 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
1.6 bases cost

Faced only 3 batters. Overall 1.6 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Changeup1 thrown (13% tonight, season 18%)
−0.1 bases saved
Curveball1 thrown (13% tonight, season 6%)
+0.1 bases cost
Redspitching
Rhett Lowder3.0 IP · 18 BF · 3 K · 3 BB
4.9 bases cost

The Changeup got hit — 4 balls in play worth 4.5 expected bases. 4 of his 7 whiffs came on the Slider.

Curveball5 thrown · 1 whiff
−0.1 bases saved
Luis Mey1.0 IP · 5 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
0.8 bases saved

His Slider did the damage prevention — 0.8 bases better than average on 10 pitches.

Sinker7 thrown (35% tonight, season 59%) · 1 whiff
+0.3 bases cost
Carson Spiers4.0 IP · 17 BF · 5 K · 0 BB
5.3 bases cost

His Sweeper did the damage prevention — 2.1 bases better than average on 27 pitches. The Changeup got hit — 2 balls in play worth 4.1 expected bases.

Cutter1 thrown
−0.1 bases saved
Graham Ashcraft1.0 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
1.2 bases saved

His Slider did the damage prevention — 0.7 bases better than average on 10 pitches.

Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Cubs
Lucky
Dead even
Reds
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Pete Crow-Armstrong hit it

Every ball Pete Crow-Armstrong hit this game, where it landed.

328'412'325'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished −0.8 bases behind deserved.

5 PA3 H0 BB0 HBP0 K110.0 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 7Deserved: 7.8
PA 1 vs Rhett Lowder: single — 1.0 deserved basesPA 2 vs Rhett Lowder: double — 2.8 deserved basesPA 3 vs Luis Mey: out — 0.0 deserved basesPA 4 vs Carson Spiers: home run — 3.8 deserved basesPA 5 vs Carson Spiers: out — 0.1 deserved bases
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball44%

3.9 deserved bases on contact

Breaking38%
Offspeed19%

3.9 deserved bases on contact

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Carson Spiers
Actual
4.0
Deserved
3.9
Rhett Lowder
Actual
3.0
Deserved
3.9
Luis Mey
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.0
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Great American Ball Park.

Cubs30 BIP · 4 BB/HBP
328'412'325'
Reds23 BIP · 1 BB/HBP
328'412'325'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Great American Ball Park — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information