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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Jul 17, 2026
Orioles
3
Final
Astros
2
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Orioles 21% · tied 12% · Astros 67%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
3
2
Est. bases
9.6
9.1
Total bases
9
7
Home runs
1
0
Barrels
1
2
Walks/HBP
5
10
Strikeouts
13
8
GIDP
0
1
Stolen bases
1
0
Left on base
6
11
Errors
0
0

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Orioles lead on deserved runs by 0.8.

Astros deserved lead ↑
-20+2-0.8-1
Orioles deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Astros +1.3 (80% band 0.0 to +2.0) · actual Astros +1Through inning 2: deserved Astros +1.3 (80% band 0.0 to +2.0) · actual Astros +1Through inning 3: deserved Astros +0.1 (80% band -2.0 to +2.0) · actual Astros +1Through inning 4: deserved Astros +0.1 (80% band -2.0 to +2.0) · actual Astros +1Through inning 5: deserved Astros +0.5 (80% band -1.0 to +2.0) · actual Astros +1Through inning 6: deserved Astros +0.7 (80% band -1.0 to +3.0) · actual Astros +1Through inning 7: deserved Astros +0.8 (80% band -1.0 to +3.0) · actual Astros +1Through inning 8: deserved Orioles +0.8 (80% band -3.0 to +1.0) · actual Orioles +1Through inning 9: deserved Orioles +0.8 (80% band -3.0 to +1.0) · actual Orioles +1123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualAstros sideOrioles side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Orioles
Astros
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck diagnostic

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Orioles
Lucky
Unlucky
Astros
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Orioles
Astros
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Oriolespitching
Dean Kremer4.0 IP · 17 BF · 5 K · 3 BB
1.2 bases cost

The Sinker got hit — 1 ball in play worth 2.5 expected bases. His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 0.6 bases better than average on 17 pitches.

Other1 thrown
0.0 bases
Anthony Nunez2.0 IP · 8 BF · 0 K · 2 BB
1.5 bases cost

The Changeup got hit — 0 balls in play worth 0.0 expected bases. His Cutter did the damage prevention — 0.6 bases better than average on 5 pitches.

Four-Seamer10 thrown (28% tonight, season 30%)
+0.6 bases cost
Changeup5 thrown (14% tonight, season 22%)
+1.1 bases cost
Sinker4 thrown (11% tonight, season 13%)
+0.2 bases cost
Grant Wolfram0.3 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 2 BB
0.6 bases cost

About an average night — +0.6 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Four-Seamer4 thrown (27% tonight, season 23%)
+0.6 bases cost
Slider2 thrown (13% tonight, season 11%)
+0.2 bases cost
Cam Sanders0.7 IP · 2 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.9 bases saved

Faced only 2 batters. His Slider did the damage prevention — 1.0 bases better than average on 9 pitches.

Four-Seamer5 thrown (36% tonight, season 46%) · 1 whiff
+0.1 bases cost
Andrew Kittredge1.0 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
0.7 bases saved

His Slider did the damage prevention — 0.7 bases better than average on 10 pitches.

Sinker5 thrown (31% tonight, season 39%)
+0.3 bases cost
Tyler Wells1.0 IP · 5 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
0.7 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 0.7 bases better than average on 9 pitches.

Four-Seamer9 thrown (31% tonight, season 28%) · 2 whiffs
−0.7 bases saved
Slider6 thrown (21% tonight, season 15%) · 1 whiff
0.0 bases
Astrospitching
Peter Lambert6.0 IP · 25 BF · 10 K · 3 BB
3.5 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 2.8 bases better than average on 31 pitches. The Slurve got hit — 1 ball in play worth 0.0 expected bases.

Sweeper7 thrown (7% tonight, season 8%) · 2 whiffs
−0.4 bases saved
Steven Okert1.0 IP · 3 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
1.3 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters. His Slider did the damage prevention — 0.9 bases better than average on 11 pitches.

Four-Seamer5 thrown (31% tonight, season 28%) · 1 whiff
−0.3 bases saved
Bryan King1.0 IP · 5 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
3.3 bases cost

The Sweeper got hit — 1 ball in play worth 3.3 expected bases. Overall 3.3 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Enyel De Los Santos1.0 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
0.4 bases saved

About an average night — −0.4 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Four-Seamer3 thrown (25% tonight, season 43%) · 1 whiff
+0.4 bases cost
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck diagnostic

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Orioles
Lucky
Unlucky
Astros
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Yordan Alvarez hit it

Every ball Yordan Alvarez hit this game, where it landed.

315'433'326'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished −0.3 bases behind deserved.

5 PA2 H2 BB0 HBP0 K104.0 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 5Deserved: 5.3
PA 1 vs Dean Kremer: double — 2.5 deserved basesPA 2 vs Dean Kremer: single — 0.8 deserved basesPA 3 vs Anthony Nunez: walkPA 4 vs Grant Wolfram: walkPA 5 vs Tyler Wells: out — 0.0 deserved bases
BB
BB
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball58%

2.5 deserved bases on contact

Offspeed23%

0.0 deserved bases on contact

Breaking15%

0.8 deserved bases on contact

Other4%

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Dean Kremer
Actual
3.0
Deserved
3.3
Anthony Nunez
BB
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.0
Grant Wolfram
BB
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.0
Tyler Wells
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.0
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Daikin Park.

Orioles18 BIP · 5 BB/HBP
315'433'326'
Astros22 BIP · 10 BB/HBP
315'433'326'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Daikin Park — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information