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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Orioles at Astros · Jul 18, 2026

Orioles
4
Final
Astros
2
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Orioles 26% · tied 16% · Astros 59%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
4
2
Est. bases
7.3
14.2
Total bases
6
10
Home runs
0
0
Barrels
0
0
Walks/HBP
7
2
Strikeouts
15
10
GIDP
1
1
Stolen bases
1
0
Left on base
9
11
Errors
2
0

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Astros lead on deserved runs by 1.1.

Astros deserved lead ↑
-20+2+4+1.1-2
Orioles deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Astros +0.2 (80% band 0.0 to +1.0) · this inning +0.2 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 2: deserved Astros +0.2 (80% band 0.0 to +1.0) · this inning -0.1 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 3: deserved Astros +0.0 (80% band 0.0 to 0.0) · this inning -0.1 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 4: deserved Orioles +0.7 (80% band -2.0 to +1.0) · this inning -0.7 deserved runs · actual Orioles +1Through inning 5: deserved Orioles +0.3 (80% band -2.0 to +1.0) · this inning +0.4 deserved runs · actual Orioles +1Through inning 6: deserved Orioles +0.9 (80% band -3.0 to +1.0) · this inning -0.7 deserved runs · actual Orioles +1Through inning 7: deserved Astros +0.3 (80% band -2.0 to +3.0) · this inning +1.2 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 8: deserved Astros +0.1 (80% band -2.0 to +3.0) · this inning -0.2 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 9: deserved Astros +0.3 (80% band -2.0 to +3.0) · this inning +0.2 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 10: deserved Astros +0.9 (80% band -2.0 to +4.0) · this inning +0.7 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 11: deserved Astros +1.1 (80% band -2.0 to +4.0) · this inning +0.1 deserved runs · actual Orioles +21234567891011

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualAstros sideOrioles side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Orioles
Astros
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck diagnostic

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Orioles
Lucky
Unlucky
Astros
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Orioles
Astros
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Oriolespitching
Trevor Rogers6.3 IP · 27 BF · 8 K · 1 BB
2.8 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 1.4 bases better than average on 54 pitches. 8 of his 12 whiffs came on the Four-Seamer.

Rico Garcia0.7 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
0.5 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Four-Seamer1 thrown (11% tonight, season 35%)
+0.1 bases cost
Yennier Cano1.0 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.7 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Tyler Wells1.0 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.9 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters. 3 of his 5 whiffs came on the Four-Seamer.

Four-Seamer5 thrown (36% tonight, season 28%) · 3 whiffs
−0.4 bases saved
Changeup2 thrown (14% tonight, season 23%) · 1 whiff
−0.1 bases saved
Curveball1 thrown (7% tonight, season 5%)
−0.1 bases saved
Slider1 thrown (7% tonight, season 15%)
−0.1 bases saved
Andrew Kittredge1.0 IP · 5 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.5 bases cost

The Slider got hit — 3 balls in play worth 2.1 expected bases.

Cam Sanders1.0 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.2 bases cost

Faced only 3 batters. His Slider did the damage prevention — 0.7 bases better than average on 5 pitches.

Astrospitching
Spencer Arrighetti5.0 IP · 21 BF · 6 K · 4 BB
1.9 bases saved

His Curveball did the damage prevention — 1.1 bases better than average on 25 pitches. 4 of his 9 whiffs came on the Curveball.

Cutter8 thrown (9% tonight, season 6%)
+0.3 bases cost
Changeup1 thrown (1% tonight, season 7%)
0.0 bases
AJ Blubaugh2.0 IP · 7 BF · 3 K · 1 BB
0.7 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 1.4 bases better than average on 18 pitches.

Cutter2 thrown (5% tonight, season 5%) · 1 whiff
+0.1 bases cost
Bryan Abreu1.0 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.4 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters. His Slider did the damage prevention — 0.7 bases better than average on 9 pitches.

Four-Seamer4 thrown (27% tonight, season 47%)
+0.4 bases cost
Cutter2 thrown (13% tonight, season 8%) · 1 whiff
−0.1 bases saved
Josh Hader1.0 IP · 3 BF · 3 K · 0 BB
1.4 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters. His Slider did the damage prevention — 0.9 bases better than average on 6 pitches.

Sinker7 thrown (54% tonight, season 63%) · 2 whiffs
−0.4 bases saved
Slider6 thrown (46% tonight, season 37%) · 2 whiffs
−0.9 bases saved
Steven Okert1.0 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.3 bases saved

About an average night — −0.3 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Four-Seamer4 thrown (29% tonight, season 28%)
+0.1 bases cost
Enyel De Los Santos1.0 IP · 6 BF · 2 K · 1 BB
0.9 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 0.7 bases better than average on 12 pitches.

Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck diagnostic

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Orioles
Lucky
Unlucky
Astros
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Yordan Alvarez hit it

Every ball Yordan Alvarez hit this game, where it landed.

315'433'326'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished −0.4 bases behind deserved.

5 PA1 H1 BB0 HBP1 K108.3 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 3Deserved: 3.4
PA 1 vs Trevor Rogers: out — 0.1 deserved basesPA 2 vs Trevor Rogers: strikeoutPA 3 vs Trevor Rogers: out — 0.4 deserved basesPA 4 vs Rico Garcia: walkPA 5 vs Andrew Kittredge: double — 1.9 deserved bases
K
BB
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball64%

0.5 deserved bases on contact

Breaking21%

1.9 deserved bases on contact

Offspeed14%

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Andrew Kittredge
Actual
2.0
Deserved
1.9
Rico Garcia
BB
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.0
Trevor Rogers
K
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.5
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Daikin Park.

Orioles22 BIP · 7 BB/HBP
315'433'326'
Astros32 BIP · 2 BB/HBP
315'433'326'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Daikin Park — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information