Skip to main content
MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
Aug 14, 2026
Mariners
7
Final
Astros
10
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Mariners 42% · tied 14% · Astros 44%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
7
10
Est. bases
15.7
16.8
Total bases
18
20
Home runs
0
2
Barrels
1
1
Walks/HBP
5
3
Strikeouts
11
7
GIDP
1
0
Stolen bases
1
2
Left on base
10
5
Errors
0
0

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the two sides are level on deserved runs.

Astros deserved lead ↑
-4-20+2+40.0+3
Mariners deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Astros +0.4 (80% band -1.0 to +1.0) · this inning +0.4 deserved runs · actual Mariners +1Through inning 2: deserved Astros +1.4 (80% band 0.0 to +3.0) · this inning +1.0 deserved runs · actual Astros +3Through inning 3: deserved Astros +1.2 (80% band -1.0 to +3.0) · this inning -0.2 deserved runs · actual Astros +3Through inning 4: deserved Astros +1.2 (80% band -1.0 to +3.0) · this inning +0.1 deserved runs · actual Astros +3Through inning 5: deserved Astros +1.6 (80% band -1.0 to +4.0) · this inning +0.4 deserved runs · actual Astros +3Through inning 6: deserved Astros +0.7 (80% band -2.0 to +3.0) · this inning -0.9 deserved runs · actual Astros +2Through inning 7: deserved Astros +0.7 (80% band -2.0 to +3.0) · this inning 0.0 deserved runs · actual Astros +2Through inning 8: deserved Mariners +0.9 (80% band -4.0 to +2.0) · this inning -1.6 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 9: deserved Mariners +1.1 (80% band -4.0 to +2.0) · this inning -0.3 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 10: deserved Mariners +0.0 (80% band -4.0 to +4.0) · this inning +1.1 deserved runs · actual Astros +312345678910

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualAstros sideMariners side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Mariners
Astros
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck diagnostic

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Mariners
Lucky
Unlucky
Astros
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Mariners
Astros
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Marinerspitching
George Kirby4.7 IP · 24 BF · 2 K · 3 BB
0.9 bases cost

His Sinker did the damage prevention — 1.7 bases better than average on 26 pitches. The Changeup got hit — 1 ball in play worth 3.9 expected bases.

Knuckle Curve16 thrown (16% tonight, season 10%) · 3 whiffs
−0.5 bases saved
Cutter2 thrown (2% tonight, season 3%) · 1 whiff
−0.2 bases saved
Splitter1 thrown
+0.2 bases cost
Michael Rucker1.3 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
1.5 bases saved

His Sinker did the damage prevention — 0.7 bases better than average on 7 pitches.

Cutter3 thrown (19% tonight, season 19%)
0.0 bases
Four-Seamer2 thrown (13% tonight, season 35%)
+0.1 bases cost
Gabe Speier1.0 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
even

Faced only 3 batters. His Sinker did the damage prevention — 0.8 bases better than average on 6 pitches.

Sinker6 thrown (50% tonight, season 32%) · 1 whiff
−0.8 bases saved
Eduard Bazardo2.0 IP · 6 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
1.9 bases saved

His Sinker did the damage prevention — 1.2 bases better than average on 14 pitches. Overall 1.9 bases better than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Sweeper6 thrown (30% tonight, season 34%) · 1 whiff
−0.7 bases saved
Andrés Muñoz0.7 IP · 6 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
2.8 bases cost

The Slider got hit — 4 balls in play worth 5.1 expected bases. 5 of his 5 whiffs came on the Slider.

Changeup1 thrown (4% tonight, season 5%)
0.0 bases
Astrospitching
Peter Lambert5.0 IP · 22 BF · 6 K · 2 BB
2.4 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 3.1 bases better than average on 32 pitches. The Sweeper got hit — 1 ball in play worth 1.5 expected bases.

Slurve10 thrown (10% tonight, season 4%) · 1 whiff
+0.2 bases cost
Bennett Sousa1.0 IP · 5 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
0.6 bases cost

About an average night — +0.6 bases vs average on 5 batters.

Steven Okert1.0 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
even

Faced only 3 batters.

Sinker2 thrown (29% tonight, season 5%)
0.0 bases
Bryan Abreu1.0 IP · 7 BF · 0 K · 2 BB
2.0 bases cost

The Four-Seamer got hit — 3 balls in play worth 1.2 expected bases. Struggled to find the zone (52% strikes).

Josh Hader1.0 IP · 5 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
1.0 bases saved

His Sinker did the damage prevention — 1.1 bases better than average on 13 pitches.

Enyel De Los Santos1.0 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.6 bases cost

The Changeup got hit — 2 balls in play worth 1.4 expected bases.

Four-Seamer6 thrown (32% tonight, season 44%) · 1 whiff
−0.1 bases saved
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck diagnostic

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Mariners
Lucky
Unlucky
Astros
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Yordan Alvarez hit it

Every ball Yordan Alvarez hit this game, where it landed.

315'433'326'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished −0.7 bases behind deserved.

5 PA2 H1 BB0 HBP0 K106.5 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 6Deserved: 6.7
PA 1 vs George Kirby: home run — 3.9 deserved basesPA 2 vs George Kirby: walkPA 3 vs George Kirby: single — 0.7 deserved basesPA 4 vs Gabe Speier: out — 1.0 deserved basesPA 5 vs Andrés Muñoz: out — 0.1 deserved bases
BB
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball57%

1.7 deserved bases on contact

Breaking36%

0.1 deserved bases on contact

Offspeed7%

3.9 deserved bases on contact

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

George Kirby
BB
Actual
6.0
Deserved
5.6
Gabe Speier
Actual
0.0
Deserved
1.0
Andrés Muñoz
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.1
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Daikin Park.

Mariners30 BIP · 5 BB/HBP
315'433'326'
Astros33 BIP · 3 BB/HBP
315'433'326'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Daikin Park — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information