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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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May 18, 2026
Astros
3
Final
Twins
6
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Astros 16% · tied 11% · Twins 72%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
3
6
Est. bases
6.5
14.1
Total bases
7
16
Home runs
0
2
Barrels
0
3
Walks/HBP
8
3
Strikeouts
6
6
GIDP
1
1
Stolen bases
0
0
Left on base
10
3
Errors
0
0

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Astros
Twins
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck diagnostic

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Astros
Lucky
Unlucky
Twins
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Astros
Twins
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Astrospitching
Tatsuya Imai4.7 IP · 18 BF · 5 K · 0 BB
1.1 bases cost

His Slider did the damage prevention — 2.5 bases better than average on 35 pitches. The Four-Seamer got hit — 6 balls in play worth 3.8 expected bases.

Jayden Murray1.3 IP · 8 BF · 0 K · 2 BB
2.1 bases cost

The Four-Seamer got hit — 3 balls in play worth 2.3 expected bases. Struggled to find the zone (48% strikes).

Changeup8 thrown (32% tonight, season 8%)
+1.0 bases cost
Sinker1 thrown (4% tonight, season 10%)
−0.1 bases saved
AJ Blubaugh2.0 IP · 7 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
1.1 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 1.0 bases better than average on 17 pitches.

Changeup9 thrown (28% tonight, season 21%) · 1 whiff
0.0 bases
Sweeper4 thrown (13% tonight, season 22%) · 1 whiff
+0.1 bases cost
Curveball1 thrown
−0.1 bases saved
Cutter1 thrown (3% tonight, season 5%)
−0.1 bases saved
Twinspitching
Kendry Rojas4.0 IP · 15 BF · 3 K · 1 BB
1.7 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 1.2 bases better than average on 19 pitches. The Sinker got hit — 2 balls in play worth 1.7 expected bases.

Simeon Woods Richardson1.0 IP · 5 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
0.5 bases saved

About an average night — −0.5 bases vs average on 5 batters.

Slider5 thrown (28% tonight, season 23%)
+0.1 bases cost
Splitter2 thrown (11% tonight, season 25%) · 1 whiff
−0.3 bases saved
Andrew Morris1.0 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
0.2 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 0.7 bases better than average on 7 pitches.

Sweeper4 thrown (25% tonight, season 10%)
+0.2 bases cost
Sinker2 thrown (13% tonight, season 11%)
+0.2 bases cost
Changeup1 thrown (6% tonight, season 11%)
+0.1 bases cost
Justin Topa0.7 IP · 7 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
0.2 bases cost

The Cutter got hit — 0 balls in play worth 0.0 expected bases. Struggled to find the zone (55% strikes).

Cutter13 thrown (42% tonight, season 27%) · 3 whiffs
+0.6 bases cost
Eric Orze1.3 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
1.6 bases saved

His Splitter did the damage prevention — 1.7 bases better than average on 12 pitches. Overall 1.6 bases better than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Curveball5 thrown (26% tonight, season 9%)
+0.1 bases cost
Four-Seamer2 thrown (11% tonight, season 26%)
+0.1 bases cost
Yoendrys Gómez0.3 IP · 3 BF · 0 K · 2 BB
0.7 bases cost

Faced only 3 batters. The Four-Seamer got hit — 0 balls in play worth 0.0 expected bases.

Four-Seamer6 thrown (55% tonight, season 46%)
+0.9 bases cost
Sinker1 thrown (9% tonight, season 10%)
+0.2 bases cost
Taylor Rogers0.7 IP · 2 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.6 bases saved

Faced only 2 batters. His Sinker did the damage prevention — 0.9 bases better than average on 6 pitches.

Sweeper4 thrown (36% tonight, season 50%)
+0.2 bases cost
Cutter1 thrown (9% tonight, season 13%)
+0.1 bases cost
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck diagnostic

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Astros
Lucky
Unlucky
Twins
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Josh Bell hit it

Every ball Josh Bell hit this game, where it landed.

339'408'328'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished +2.5 bases ahead of deserved.

4 PA3 H0 BB0 HBP0 K112.3 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 9Deserved: 6.5
PA 1 vs Tatsuya Imai: home run — 3.2 deserved basesPA 2 vs Tatsuya Imai: home run — 2.9 deserved basesPA 3 vs Jayden Murray: single — 0.2 deserved basesPA 4 vs AJ Blubaugh: out — 0.2 deserved bases
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball64%

3.4 deserved bases on contact

Offspeed29%

3.2 deserved bases on contact

Breaking7%

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Tatsuya Imai
Actual
8.0
Deserved
6.1
AJ Blubaugh
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.2
Jayden Murray
Actual
1.0
Deserved
0.2
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Target Field.

Astros26 BIP · 8 BB/HBP
339'408'328'
Twins24 BIP · 3 BB/HBP
339'408'328'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Target Field — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information