Justin Topa

2026

Twins· RHP · throws R· 19.0 IP· 8.05 ERA· 2.00 WHIP· 92 BF

Grade

How good he's been, and at what

F13th percentile run prevention

RelieverHittable Strike-Thrower

Pounds the zone, but too much of it gets hit hard.

Topa is getting hit harder than most pitchers

The simulator expects 0.509 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 13th percentile of qualified pitchers. The soft spot is Strikeouts (5th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.

Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size (not raw season stats), so farther out = better.
Percentiles vs. 424 qualified pitchers — 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers pooled. He hasn't reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.
92 batters faced · data through 2026-07-29.

Plays like…

Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.

Michael LorenzenRockies

Jose QuintanaRockies

Jayden MurrayAstros

Angel ZerpaBrewers

Pitcher type

What kind of pitcher he is, next to the league

Pitcher type

Two skills separate pitching styles: finishing hitters without free passes (strikeout rate minus walk rate, right = better) and keeping the contact they do allow soft (hard-hit rate against, up = better).
Every dot is a qualified pitcher this season; dot size tracks batters faced. Click any dot to open that pitcher's page.
Dashed lines mark the league median on each skill.

	Justin Topa	League	Percentile
Bases per ball in play(fewer = better)	.522	.529	13th
Walk rate(fewer = better)	12%	9%	22nd
Strikeout rate(higher = better)	16%	22%	5th

100th percentile = best in MLB.

Arsenal

What he throws, and what it does

Justin Topa mixes his sinker (43%) and cutter (27%). His best pitch has been the changeup, saving 4.4 bases per 100 thrown vs average.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

What they throw, how hard, and what misses bats — from pitch tracking, regular season only.

+1 bases better than a replacement arm this season

allowed 46 bases vs a replacement arm's 47 over the same batters faced

Results

All pitches

cost 1.3 per 1004.8 cost across 359

Sinker

43% +7 pts vs '25

93.4 mph · lg 94.8 −0.8 mph vs '25

9% whiffs · lg 11%

cost 0.3 per 1000.4 cost across 153

Cutter

27% +7 pts vs '25

91.4 mph · lg 90.1 +0.2 mph vs '25

15% whiffs · lg 20%

cost 1.5 per 1001.4 cost across 95

Sweeper

17% −12 pts vs '25

81.6 mph · lg 83.5 −1.3 mph vs '25

—

cost 8.7 per 1005.2 cost across 60

Changeup

14% −1 pts vs '25

86.2 mph · lg 87.2 −0.9 mph vs '25

—

saved 4.4 per 1002.2 saved across 51

Mix by batter side

How the mix shifts against lefty and righty bats. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.

Sinker

23% vs LHH

53% vs RHH

Cutter

36% vs LHH

22% vs RHH

By appearance

How the stuff has held up outing to outing

One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.

Platoon splits

How he fares against lefties and righties

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

Dot = shrunk true-talent estimate; bar = 50% probable range. Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
Faint diamond = his raw, unshrunk rate against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy estimate.
These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
Gray tick (marked “lg”) = league median vs that side; the faint gray band behind it spans the middle half of the league (25th–75th percentile).
Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.

vs LHB34 PA0.503

vs RHB58 PA0.462

Raw vs RHB rate (0.552) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.

0.3920.4290.4660.5030.540

← better (fewer bases allowed)worse →

Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.040 EB/PA allowed (modeled).

50% probable range: +0.032 to +0.048

About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.041). He allows more than the league median against both sides.

Contact allowed

What hitters do when they connect

Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the pull side.

Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Where every ball hit off Justin Topa landed this season.
Dots are colored by estimated bases (EB) — pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory).
Filled dots are hits; hollow rings are outs — a dark ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down.
Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two; use the ▶ links below to watch on Baseball Savant.

hit · out

EBlowhigh

vs Kazuma OkamotoHome run

EV 109 mph · LA 36° · EB 3.7

05/03 vs Blue Jays

vs Richie PalaciosHome run

EV 100 mph · LA 33° · EB 3.5

04/05 vs Rays

vs Kazuma OkamotoHome run

EV 112 mph · LA 33° · EB 3.3

05/02 vs Blue Jays

vs Brady HouseHome run

EV 109 mph · LA 35° · EB 1.7

05/06 vs Nationals

vs Nathaniel LoweOut

EV 105 mph · LA 24° · EB 1.5

04/17 vs Reds

Luck check

Burned 3 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.

vs Parker MeadowsSingleCheap hit

EV 64 mph · LA 13° · EB 0.1 · xBA .087

04/08 vs Tigers

Earned vs. actual

Every ball in play is worth the bases its exit velocity and direction usually earn. Comparing those earned bases with the bases batters were actually credited shows whether his results have been lucky, unlucky, or fair.

Earned off his contact allowed34

Actually credited to batters42

Batters have been credited about 8 more bases than their contact off Justin Topa earned — his results have run unlucky so far.

over 66 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides

ERA 8.05 · WHIP 2.00 · BABIP against 0.371 (lg 0.288)

Best games

His biggest outings this year

Best games

His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.

Date	Opponent	Result	Bases allowed	Above replacement
Apr 26, 2026	Rays	4 BF · 1 K, 1 H	0.3	+1.7
May 13, 2026	Marlins	7 BF · 2 K, 1 BB, 1 H	2.0	+1.6
Apr 10, 2026	Blue Jays	5 BF · 0 K, 2 H	1.2	+1.3
Apr 21, 2026	Mets	3 BF · 1 K	0.2	+1.3
Mar 28, 2026	Orioles	3 BF · 1 K	0.5	+1.0