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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Royals at Pirates · Sep 18, 2026

Royals
5
Final
Pirates
8
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Royals 12% · tied 10% · Pirates 79%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
5
8
Est. bases
13.6
16.6
Total bases
16
23
Home runs
2
1
Barrels
2
1
Walks/HBP
2
5
Strikeouts
11
7
GIDP
0
2
Stolen bases
0
1
Left on base
4
10
Errors
2
0

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Pirates lead on deserved runs by 2.6.

Pirates deserved lead ↑
-20+2+4+6+2.6+3
Royals deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Royals +0.8 (80% band -1.0 to 0.0) · this inning -0.8 deserved runs · actual Royals +1Through inning 2: deserved Pirates +0.2 (80% band -1.0 to +2.0) · this inning +1.0 deserved runs · actual Royals +1Through inning 3: deserved Pirates +0.4 (80% band -2.0 to +3.0) · this inning +0.2 deserved runs · actual Royals +2Through inning 4: deserved Pirates +0.2 (80% band -2.1 to +3.0) · this inning -0.2 deserved runs · actual Royals +1Through inning 5: deserved Pirates +1.1 (80% band -2.0 to +4.0) · this inning +0.9 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 6: deserved Pirates +1.8 (80% band -1.0 to +5.0) · this inning +0.6 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 7: deserved Pirates +2.4 (80% band -1.0 to +6.0) · this inning +0.6 deserved runs · actual Pirates +3Through inning 8: deserved Pirates +2.6 (80% band -1.0 to +6.0) · this inning +0.2 deserved runs · actual Pirates +3Through inning 9: deserved Pirates +2.6 (80% band -1.0 to +6.0) · this inning +0.1 deserved runs · actual Pirates +3123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualPirates sideRoyals side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Royals
Pirates
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Royals
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Pirates
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Royals
Pirates
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Royalspitching
Randy Dobnak3.7 IP · 19 BF · 1 K · 2 BB
4.3 bases cost

The Sinker got hit — 7 balls in play worth 6.6 expected bases. Overall 4.3 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Connor Thomas1.3 IP · 6 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
0.5 bases saved

His Sinker did the damage prevention — 0.7 bases better than average on 6 pitches.

Four-Seamer4 thrown (21% tonight, season 23%) · 1 whiff
−0.4 bases saved
Anthony Gose1.0 IP · 5 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
0.5 bases saved

About an average night — −0.5 bases vs average on 5 batters.

Slider12 thrown (55% tonight, season 25%) · 1 whiff
+0.1 bases cost
Nate Pearson1.0 IP · 8 BF · 2 K · 1 BB
0.1 bases saved

The Sinker got hit — 0 balls in play worth 0.0 expected bases. His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 0.7 bases better than average on 13 pitches.

Curveball5 thrown (18% tonight, season 12%) · 2 whiffs
0.0 bases
Sinker5 thrown (18% tonight, season 13%)
+0.8 bases cost
Lucas Erceg1.0 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.6 bases saved

About an average night — −0.6 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Sinker4 thrown (33% tonight, season 28%) · 1 whiff
0.0 bases
Changeup2 thrown (17% tonight, season 14%) · 1 whiff
0.0 bases
Piratespitching
Paul Skenes6.0 IP · 24 BF · 7 K · 1 BB
2.5 bases cost

His Sweeper did the damage prevention — 2.4 bases better than average on 24 pitches. The Four-Seamer got hit — 6 balls in play worth 8.8 expected bases.

Splitter1 thrown (1% tonight, season 11%)
+0.1 bases cost
Brandon Eisert0.7 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
0.2 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 0.8 bases better than average on 9 pitches.

Changeup3 thrown (21% tonight, season 19%)
+0.5 bases cost
Slider2 thrown (14% tonight, season 36%)
+0.1 bases cost
Yohan Ramírez1.3 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
1.6 bases saved

His Sweeper did the damage prevention — 1.2 bases better than average on 17 pitches. Overall 1.6 bases better than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Gregory Soto1.0 IP · 4 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
1.4 bases saved

His Slider did the damage prevention — 0.6 bases better than average on 7 pitches.

Four-Seamer2 thrown (11% tonight, season 17%)
+0.1 bases cost
Sweeper1 thrown (6% tonight, season 16%) · 1 whiff
−0.4 bases saved
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Royals
Unlucky
Dead even
Pirates
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Vinnie Pasquantino hit it

Every ball Vinnie Pasquantino hit this game, where it landed.

325'404'320'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished even with deserved.

4 PA2 H0 BB0 HBP0 K106.7 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 5Deserved: 4.9
PA 1 vs Paul Skenes: home run — 3.8 deserved basesPA 2 vs Paul Skenes: single — 0.8 deserved basesPA 3 vs Paul Skenes: out — 0.2 deserved basesPA 4 vs Yohan Ramírez: out — 0.1 deserved bases
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Breaking77%

1.0 deserved bases on contact

Fastball23%

3.8 deserved bases on contact

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Paul Skenes
Actual
5.0
Deserved
4.8
Yohan Ramírez
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.1
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on PNC Park.

Royals23 BIP · 2 BB/HBP
325'404'320'
Pirates30 BIP · 5 BB/HBP
325'404'320'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. PNC Park — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information