Randy Dobnak
2026Grade
Rarely walks anyone and lets the defense work.
Dobnak has been below average at limiting damage
The simulator expects 0.467 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 30th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is HR Suppression (76th percentile). The soft spot is Strikeouts (8th percentile).
247 batters faced · data through 2026-09-01.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Randy Dobnak.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
League best:K% − BB% Jacob Misiorowski (27.5%)Hard-hit% against Blake Snell (30.5%)
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| Randy Dobnak | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .509 | .527 | 30th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 9% | 9% | 45th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 18% | 22% | 8th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Randy Dobnak mixes his sinker (39%) and sweeper (25%). His best pitch has been the four-seam fastball, saving 2.3 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 116 bases vs a replacement arm's 132 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
5.4 bases cost vs league average, across 937 pitches — 0.6 per 100.
His slider isn't in the charts below — only 47 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.
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Mix by batter side
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Randy Dobnak's pitch movement, 2026
His Changeup has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. His slider isn't in these charts — only 47 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.040 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.033 to +0.049
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.501 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.481 to 0.520, based on 149 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.453 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.452 EB/PA.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.461 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.442 to 0.481, based on 101 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.482 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.433 EB/PA.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.042). He allows more than the league median against both sides.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the simulator pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage once — a crushed ball the simulator scores as a near-certain hit died in a glove behind him.
Burned 4 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Batters have been credited about 11 fewer bases than their contact off Randy Dobnak earned — his results have run lucky so far.
over 183 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 2.65 · WHIP 1.39 · BABIP against 0.286 (Lg median 0.287)
Times through order
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs TwinsJul 29, 2026
26 BF · 4 K, 1 BB, 4 H
- Bases allowed
- 8.2
- Above replacement
- +5.7
- vs CubsAug 9, 2026
26 BF · 4 K, 1 BB, 10 H
- Bases allowed
- 10.0
- Above replacement
- +3.9
- vs AngelsAug 15, 2026
23 BF · 6 K, 2 BB, 4 H
- Bases allowed
- 8.6
- Above replacement
- +3.7
- vs TigersJul 23, 2026
18 BF · 3 K, 1 BB, 4 H
- Bases allowed
- 7.2
- Above replacement
- +2.4
- vs RaysJul 2, 2026
18 BF · 2 K, 1 BB, 6 H, 1 HR
- Bases allowed
- 8.0
- Above replacement
- +1.7
Trends
Multi-season trends · Randy Dobnak
BB% down vs his previous season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.