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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Astros at Mariners · Sep 23, 2026

Astros
5
Final
Mariners
6
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Astros 20% · tied 14% · Mariners 66%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
5
6
Est. bases
10.9
11.8
Total bases
18
10
Home runs
1
0
Barrels
1
2
Walks/HBP
3
7
Strikeouts
13
7
GIDP
0
0
Stolen bases
1
1
Left on base
8
9
Errors
0
0

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Mariners lead on deserved runs by 1.5.

Mariners deserved lead ↑
-20+2+4+1.5+1
Astros deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Mariners +0.3 (80% band 0.0 to +1.0) · this inning +0.3 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 2: deserved Mariners +0.5 (80% band 0.0 to +1.0) · this inning +0.2 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 3: deserved Mariners +0.8 (80% band -1.0 to +3.0) · this inning +0.4 deserved runs · actual Astros +1Through inning 4: deserved Mariners +0.1 (80% band -2.0 to +2.0) · this inning -0.8 deserved runs · actual Astros +1Through inning 5: deserved Mariners +0.3 (80% band -2.0 to +3.0) · this inning +0.2 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 6: deserved Mariners +0.6 (80% band -2.0 to +3.0) · this inning +0.3 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 7: deserved Mariners +0.4 (80% band -2.0 to +3.0) · this inning -0.2 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 8: deserved Mariners +0.2 (80% band -2.0 to +3.0) · this inning -0.2 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 9: deserved Mariners +0.4 (80% band -2.0 to +3.0) · this inning +0.1 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 10: deserved Mariners +1.5 (80% band -2.0 to +5.0) · this inning +1.1 deserved runs · actual Mariners +112345678910

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualMariners sideAstros side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Astros
Mariners
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Astros
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Mariners
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Astros
Josh Hendrickson 8 BF
2.6
Mariners
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

Replacement level
How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Astrospitching
Ethan Pecko2.7 IP · 14 BF · 2 K · 2 BB
2.5 bases cost

The Curveball got hit — 1 ball in play worth 1.9 expected bases. Overall 2.5 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Sweeper10 thrown (20% tonight, season 19%) · 2 whiffs
−0.2 bases saved
Josh Hendrickson2.0 IP · 8 BF · 3 K · 0 BB
1.1 bases saved

His Cutter did the damage prevention — 1.0 bases better than average on 16 pitches. 3 of his 6 whiffs came on the Cutter.

Curveball3 thrown
+0.1 bases cost
Slider1 thrown
+0.1 bases cost
Logan VanWey0.3 IP · 1 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
0.4 bases saved

Faced only 1 batter.

Sweeper4 thrown (67% tonight, season 26%)
+0.2 bases cost
AJ Blubaugh2.0 IP · 6 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
1.6 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 1.1 bases better than average on 13 pitches. Overall 1.6 bases better than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Sweeper9 thrown (38% tonight, season 22%) · 2 whiffs
−0.2 bases saved
Bryan Abreu1.0 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
1.2 bases saved

His Slider did the damage prevention — 0.6 bases better than average on 6 pitches.

Josh Hader1.3 IP · 9 BF · 0 K · 4 BB
1.7 bases cost

The Sinker got hit — 4 balls in play worth 1.7 expected bases. 3 of his 5 whiffs came on the Sinker.

Marinerspitching
George Kirby5.0 IP · 23 BF · 5 K · 3 BB
0.5 bases cost

The Splitter got hit — 2 balls in play worth 3.7 expected bases. His Sweeper did the damage prevention — 1.2 bases better than average on 28 pitches.

Changeup4 thrown (4% tonight, season 6%) · 1 whiff
+0.1 bases cost
José A. Ferrer1.0 IP · 3 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
1.3 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters. His Sinker did the damage prevention — 0.8 bases better than average on 7 pitches.

Sinker7 thrown (54% tonight, season 69%) · 4 whiffs
−0.8 bases saved
Slider1 thrown (8% tonight, season 13%)
+0.1 bases cost
Gabe Speier1.0 IP · 4 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
1.3 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 0.8 bases better than average on 7 pitches.

Slider1 thrown (8% tonight, season 26%)
0.0 bases
Carlos Vargas1.0 IP · 4 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
1.0 bases saved

About an average night — −1.0 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Cutter9 thrown (53% tonight, season 20%) · 1 whiff
−0.6 bases saved
Seranthony Domínguez1.0 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
1.1 bases saved

5 of his 5 whiffs came on the Four-Seamer.

Four-Seamer11 thrown (58% tonight, season 43%) · 5 whiffs
−0.5 bases saved
Cooper Criswell1.0 IP · 4 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.8 bases saved

About an average night — −0.8 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Cutter4 thrown (27% tonight, season 19%) · 1 whiff
−0.3 bases saved
Sweeper2 thrown (13% tonight, season 18%)
0.0 bases
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Astros
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
Mariners
Lucky
Unlucky
Dead even
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Yainer Diaz hit it

Every ball Yainer Diaz hit this game, where it landed.

331'406'326'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished +0.8 bases ahead of deserved.

5 PA2 H0 BB0 HBP0 K105.8 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 7Deserved: 6.2
PA 1 vs George Kirby: out — 0.1 deserved basesPA 2 vs George Kirby: home run — 3.7 deserved basesPA 3 vs George Kirby: out — 1.1 deserved basesPA 4 vs Carlos Vargas: out — 0.4 deserved basesPA 5 vs Cooper Criswell: triple — 0.9 deserved bases
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball54%

0.9 deserved bases on contact

Breaking23%

1.5 deserved bases on contact

Offspeed23%

3.7 deserved bases on contact

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

George Kirby
Actual
4.0
Deserved
4.8
Cooper Criswell
Actual
3.0
Deserved
0.9
Carlos Vargas
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.4
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on T-Mobile Park.

Astros26 BIP · 3 BB/HBP
331'406'326'
Mariners28 BIP · 7 BB/HBP
331'406'326'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. T-Mobile Park — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information