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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Jul 11, 2026
Astros
9
Final
Rangers
3
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Astros 88% · tied 7% · Rangers 5%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
9
3
Est. bases
16.3
8.4
Total bases
23
13
Home runs
3
2
Barrels
3
1
Walks/HBP
5
3
Strikeouts
9
12
GIDP
0
1
Stolen bases
0
0
Left on base
6
6
Errors
0
1

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Astros lead on deserved runs by 4.1.

Rangers deserved lead ↑
-6-4-20-4.1-6
Astros deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Astros +1.1 (80% band -2.0 to -1.0) · actual Astros +2Through inning 2: deserved Astros +1.1 (80% band -2.0 to -1.0) · actual Astros +2Through inning 3: deserved Astros +4.6 (80% band -6.0 to -3.0) · actual Astros +6Through inning 4: deserved Astros +4.5 (80% band -6.0 to -3.0) · actual Astros +6Through inning 5: deserved Astros +4.5 (80% band -6.0 to -3.0) · actual Astros +6Through inning 6: deserved Astros +5.0 (80% band -7.0 to -3.0) · actual Astros +6Through inning 7: deserved Astros +5.0 (80% band -7.0 to -3.0) · actual Astros +6Through inning 8: deserved Astros +5.0 (80% band -7.0 to -3.0) · actual Astros +6Through inning 9: deserved Astros +4.1 (80% band -7.0 to -2.0) · actual Astros +6123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualRangers sideAstros side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Astros
Rangers
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck diagnostic

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Astros
Lucky
Unlucky
Rangers
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Astros
Rangers
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Astrospitching
Peter Lambert6.0 IP · 23 BF · 7 K · 1 BB
5.5 bases saved

His Changeup did the damage prevention — 1.7 bases better than average on 22 pitches. 4 of his 10 whiffs came on the Changeup.

Slider5 thrown (5% tonight, season 13%) · 1 whiff
−0.3 bases saved
Slurve5 thrown (5% tonight, season 4%)
+0.2 bases cost
Enyel De Los Santos1.0 IP · 3 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.3 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Slider1 thrown (10% tonight, season 30%) · 1 whiff
−0.3 bases saved
AJ Blubaugh2.0 IP · 10 BF · 4 K · 1 BB
0.9 bases cost

The Changeup got hit — 3 balls in play worth 3.3 expected bases. His Sweeper did the damage prevention — 0.8 bases better than average on 9 pitches.

Cutter3 thrown (7% tonight, season 5%) · 1 whiff
+0.2 bases cost
Rangerspitching
Kumar Rocker5.7 IP · 28 BF · 6 K · 2 BB
4.1 bases cost

The Four-Seamer got hit — 2 balls in play worth 3.7 expected bases. His Sinker did the damage prevention — 0.9 bases better than average on 28 pitches.

Splitter5 thrown · 1 whiff
+0.3 bases cost
Gavin Collyer1.3 IP · 5 BF · 2 K · 1 BB
0.5 bases saved

The Sweeper got hit — 1 ball in play worth 0.7 expected bases. Struggled to find the zone (52% strikes).

Four-Seamer12 thrown (48% tonight, season 26%) · 3 whiffs
−0.1 bases saved
Cutter3 thrown (12% tonight, season 34%)
−0.7 bases saved
Robby Ahlstrom1.0 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
0.4 bases saved

About an average night — −0.4 bases vs average on 4 batters.

Changeup2 thrown (14% tonight, season 15%) · 1 whiff
0.0 bases
Chris Martin1.0 IP · 5 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.9 bases saved

About an average night — −0.9 bases vs average on 5 batters.

Four-Seamer8 thrown (32% tonight, season 26%)
−0.2 bases saved
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck diagnostic

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Astros
Lucky
Unlucky
Rangers
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Yordan Alvarez hit it

Every ball Yordan Alvarez hit this game, where it landed.

329'409'326'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished +1.6 bases ahead of deserved.

5 PA2 H2 BB0 HBP0 K112.8 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 8Deserved: 6.4
PA 1 vs Kumar Rocker: home run — 3.7 deserved basesPA 2 vs Kumar Rocker: double — 0.7 deserved basesPA 3 vs Kumar Rocker: walkPA 4 vs Gavin Collyer: walkPA 5 vs Chris Martin: out — 0.0 deserved bases
BB
BB
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball61%

4.3 deserved bases on contact

Breaking22%
Offspeed17%

0.0 deserved bases on contact

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Kumar Rocker
BB
Actual
7.0
Deserved
5.3
Gavin Collyer
BB
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.0
Chris Martin
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.0
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Globe Life Field.

Astros28 BIP · 5 BB/HBP
329'409'326'
Rangers21 BIP · 3 BB/HBP
329'409'326'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Globe Life Field — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information