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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Joe Rock

2026
White Sox· LHP · throws L· 10.1 IP· 3.48 ERA· 2.13 WHIP· 53 BF

Grade

How good he's been, and at what
Fbetter than 12% of pitchers at limiting bases
StarterMixed Profile

A blend of skills without one defining trait.

Rock is getting hit harder than most pitchers

The simulator expects 0.483 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 12th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is HR Suppression (95th percentile). The soft spot is Command (5th percentile).

53 batters faced · data through 2026-09-11.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size (not raw season stats), so farther out = better. Spokes are the metric itself; ↓ marks a rate where a LOWER number is better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles vs. 494 qualified pitchers — 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers pooled. He hasn't reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.

Plays like…

Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.

George KlassenAngelsJackson KentNationalsDanny CoulombeRed SoxRobert StockMets

Pitcher type

What kind of pitcher he is, next to the league

Arsenal

What he throws, and what it does

Joe Rock leans on his four-seam fastball (49% of pitches). His best pitch has been the slider, saving 0.9 bases per 100 thrown vs average.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

+9 bases better than a replacement arm this season

allowed 19 bases vs a replacement arm's 28 over the same batters faced

Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.

All pitches

1.3 bases cost vs league average, across 168 pitches — 0.8 per 100.

Four-Seam Fastball
49%
93.3 mph · LHP median 93.6
27% whiffs · Lg median 21%
cost 2.1 per 1001.9 total
Slider
37%
84.9 mph · LHP median 85.9
34% whiffs · Lg median 33%
saved 0.9 per 1000.6 total
Sinker
not charted
10%
93.7 mph · LHP median 93.0
—
—
Changeup
not charted
4%
87.6 mph · LHP median 85.1
—
—

His sinker and changeup aren't in the charts below — too few of each were tracked this season.

How to read this chart
What they throw, how hard, and what misses bats — from pitch tracking, regular season only.

Mix by batter side

Four-Seam Fastball
50% vs LHH · LHP median 34%
48% vs RHH · LHP median 41%
Slider
43% vs LHH · LHP median 33%
31% vs RHH · LHP median 20%
How to read this chart
How the mix shifts against lefty and righty bats. Medians are among left-handed pitchers who throw that pitch at least 3% of the time — between 96 and 143 of them, depending on the pitch. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.

By appearance

How the stuff has held up outing to outing

One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. His sinker and changeup aren't in these charts — too few of each were tracked this season.

Platoon splits

How he fares against lefties and righties

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

Better vs LHB than vs RHB by 0.037 EB/PA allowed (modeled).

50% probable range: +0.028 to +0.047

vs LHB30 PA0.529

vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.529 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.505 to 0.551, based on 30 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.517 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.455 EB/PA.

vs RHB23 PA0.566

vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.566 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.545 to 0.589, based on 23 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.393 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.438 EB/PA.

Raw vs RHB rate (0.393) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.

0.4190.4660.5130.5600.607
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

About the typical split for a lefty arm (median 0.038). He allows more than the league median against both sides.

How to read this chart
  • Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
  • His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the simulator pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
  • “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
  • These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
  • Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.

Contact allowed

What hitters do when they connect

Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the pull side.

Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Where every ball hit off Joe Rock landed this season.
hit · out
EBlowhigh
vs Kevin McGonigleOutRobbed
EV 96 mph · LA 12° · EB 2.0
06/20 vs Tigers
vs Jake RogersSingle
EV 103 mph · LA 15° · EB 1.6
06/20 vs Tigers
vs Paul GoldschmidtSingle
EV 101 mph · LA 12° · EB 1.1
06/16 vs Yankees
vs José CaballeroSingle
EV 92 mph · LA 13° · EB 1.0
06/16 vs Yankees
vs Kevin McGonigleSingle
EV 103 mph · LA 11° · EB 0.9
06/20 vs Tigers

Luck check

Escaped damage once — a crushed ball the simulator scores as a near-certain hit died in a glove behind him.

vs Kevin McGonigleOutRobbed
EV 96 mph · LA 12° · EB 2.0
06/20 vs Tigers

Burned once — a ball with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.

vs Max MuncySingleCheap hit
EV 63 mph · LA -60° · EB 0.1 · xBA .141
06/13 vs Dodgers
How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB) — what the contact was worth, regardless of what the defense did with it. So a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Best games

His biggest outings this year

Best games

His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.

Multi-season trends · Joe Rock

HR allowed% down, BB% up, K% down vs last season

Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.