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Carson Palmquist

2026
Nationals· LHP · throws L· 16.1 IP· 7.71 ERA· 1.78 WHIP· 78 batters faced

Grade

His grade shows how good he has been, and at what.
Fbetter than 17% of qualified pitchers at limiting bases
RelieverPower Arm

Misses bats in bunches; lives with the walks.

Palmquist allows more bases than most pitchers

The simulator expects him to allow 0.478 bases per batter faced, better than 17% of qualified pitchers. His best skill is limiting hard contact (91st percentile). His weakest skill is limiting walks (27th percentile). Short relief outings push strikeout rates up a little, so read his K% spoke with that in mind.

His grade rests on 78 batters faced, with data through 2026-09-27.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size, not a raw season stat, and farther out is better. A ↓ marks a stat where a lower number is better, and its spoke is flipped so farther out still means better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles compare him with 517 qualified pitchers, those with 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers together. He has not reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.

Plays like…

Each of these pitchers shares his archetype and sits closest to him in xEB/PA.

Robert StockMetsJack SinclairNationalsDrey JamesonD-backsKhristian CurtisPirates

Pitcher type

This map shows what kind of pitcher he is, next to the league.

Arsenal

These cards show what he throws and what each pitch does.

Carson Palmquist mixes his sweeper (42%) and sinker (33%). His sinker has performed closest to league average.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

+5 bases better than a replacement arm this season

He allowed about 35 estimated bases, against a replacement arm's 41 over the same batters faced.

Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.

All pitches

He cost 1.1 bases against league average across 233 pitches, or 0.5 per 100 pitches.

Sweeper
42%
73.9 mph · LHP median 81.2
31% whiffs · Lg median 31%
cost 0.8 per 1001.1 total
Sinker
33%
90.6 mph · LHP median 92.9
7% whiffs · Lg median 13%
eveneven
Four-Seam Fastball
not charted
16%
91.2 mph · LHP median 93.5
—
—
Cutter
not charted
10%
82.0 mph · LHP median 88.0
—
—

His four-seam fastball and cutter aren't in the charts below, because too few of each were tracked this season.

How to read this chart
Each row is a pitch he throws at least 3% of the time, from pitch tracking in the regular season. The bar is how often he throws it, then its average velocity and its whiff rate, the share of swings that miss. Beside the velocity and the whiff rate is the median for that pitch, among pitchers of his hand for velocity and across the league for whiffs. More whiffs are better for a pitcher, while usage and velocity describe how he pitches. The Bases vs average bars score each pitch against a league-average pitch in the same count, and a bar to the left (saved) is better.

Mix by batter side

Sweeper
41% vs LHH · LHP median 31%
42% vs RHH · LHP median 19%
Sinker
44% vs LHH · LHP median 38%
24% vs RHH · LHP median 22%
How to read this chart
Each row shows how often he throws a pitch to left-handed hitters (LHH) and right-handed hitters (RHH), next to the median for pitchers of his hand (LHP median). Medians come from left-handed pitchers who throw that pitch at least 3% of the time. Between 55 and 111 of them qualify, depending on the pitch. A mix is a plan, so a higher or lower share is neither better nor worse. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.

Carson Palmquist's pitch movement, 2026

Carson Palmquist's pitch movement, 2026-12012012in← glove sidearm side →more risemore drop
SweeperST
Rise 0.6 in
−0.5 vs Lg median
Break −11.9 in
+1.9 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
SinkerSI
Rise 5.1 in
−3.2 vs Lg median
Break 16.6 in
+1.4 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
Early season → nowLg medianNormal wobble around the dot
How to read this chart
Each dot is a pitch's current break in inches, averaged over his latest outings. Higher is more rise and further right is more arm-side break, and neither is better or worse. The faint trail runs from his early-season outings to the dot, and the soft halo shows how far normal noise can move it. League median is the small hollow ring, and a pitch marked * has none because too few pitchers throw it. The “changed” verdict removes a league-wide drift that the trail still shows, so a long trail can read as steady. The by-appearance chart below has the exact dates. More on the About page

By appearance

These charts follow his velocity, movement and mix from outing to outing.

These charts follow his velocity, movement and pitch mix one outing at a time, and each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. The velocity and movement charts also shade the middle of the league for scale. His four-seam fastball and cutter aren't in these charts, because too few of each were tracked this season.

Platoon splits

This section splits his results against lefties and righties.

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

He handles lefty bats better than righty bats, by 0.038 EB/PA allowed.

50% probable range: +0.030 to +0.047

vs LHB37 PA0.439

vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.439 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.415 to 0.460, based on 37 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.450 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.451 EB/PA.

vs RHB42 PA0.477

vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.477 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.454 to 0.498, based on 42 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.516 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.435 EB/PA.

His raw rate vs RHB (0.516) is off this scale. Small samples can push a raw rate this far, which is why the dot, the shrunk estimate, is the number to trust.

0.4050.4310.4570.4820.508
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

His split is about typical for a lefty arm (median 0.038). Against righty bats he allows more than the league median, which is a real platoon weakness.

How to read this chart
  • Each dot is his estimate against that side, with its 50% probable range as the bar. These are bases allowed, so lower is better.
  • The diamond is his raw rate, which small samples make noisy, so the simulator pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy value.
  • The dashed tick is the league median, and the shaded strip is the middle half of pitchers with 100 or more batters faced.
  • The two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed, not the xEB/PA headline.
  • Tap or hover a mark for its number. LHB and RHB are left- and right-handed batters. More on the About page

Contact allowed

These cards show what hitters do when they make contact.

Batters go up the middle off him most often, but they do the most damage to the pull side.

Pull side and opposite field depend on which side each batter hits from, so this pools every hitter he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Every ball hit off Carson Palmquist this season is drawn where it landed.
hit · out
EBlowhigh
vs Edmundo SosaOutLucky out
97 mph · 30° · worth 2.5 bases
06/24 vs Phillies
vs Ben RiceHome run
102 mph · 29° · worth 2.5 bases
07/10 vs Yankees
vs Shea LangeliersDouble
97 mph · 38° · worth 2.3 bases
07/18 vs Athletics
vs Ceddanne RafaelaDouble
103 mph · 14° · worth 1.4 bases
07/01 vs Red Sox
vs Jake McCarthyDouble
87 mph · 14° · worth 1.2 bases
07/21 vs Rockies

Luck check

One out behind him came on a ball the simulator values at 1.5 bases or more.

vs Edmundo SosaOutLucky out
97 mph · 30° · worth 2.5 bases
06/24 vs Phillies
How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB), what the contact was worth no matter what the defense did with it. Darker means more bases, so a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Deserved vs. actual

Batters have been credited with about the bases their contact off Carson Palmquist deserved.

Deserved by the contact he allowed27
Actually credited to batters28

Both bars count 52 balls in play, with walks and strikeouts left out.

How to read this chart
Every ball in play is worth the bases its exit velocity, launch angle and direction usually produce. If batters were credited with more than that, his results have been unlucky, and fewer means lucky. BABIP against is the batting average on balls in play he allows, next to the league median.

ERA 7.71 · WHIP 1.78 · BABIP against 0.392 (Lg median 0.286)

Best games

These are his biggest outings this season.

Best games

These are his best outings this season, ranked by bases saved against a replacement arm.

Multi-season trends · Carson Palmquist

Compared with last season, his HR allowed% is down, his BB% is down, his K% is up, his Barrel% against is down, his Hard-hit% against is down, his GB% against is up, his FB% against is down and his Pull% against is down.

Actual rates show what happened on the field, season by season.