Carson Palmquist
2026Grade
A blend of skills without one defining trait.
Palmquist is getting hit harder than most pitchers
The simulator expects 0.476 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 18th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Quiet Contact (92nd percentile). The soft spot is Command (27th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
78 batters faced · data through 2026-08-23.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.
Pitcher type
Arsenal
Carson Palmquist mixes his sweeper (42%) and sinker (33%). His sinker has performed closest to league average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 35 bases vs a replacement arm's 40 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
1.1 bases cost vs league average, across 233 pitches — 0.5 per 100.
His four-seam fastball and cutter aren't in the charts below — too few of each were tracked this season.
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Mix by batter side
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Carson Palmquist's pitch movement, 2026
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. His four-seam fastball and cutter aren't in these charts — too few of each were tracked this season.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs LHB than vs RHB by 0.038 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.030 to +0.047
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.448 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.424 to 0.470, based on 37 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.450 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.459 EB/PA.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.486 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.464 to 0.509, based on 42 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.516 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.441 EB/PA.
About the typical split for a lefty arm (median 0.038). Against righty bats he allows more than the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the pull side.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage once — a crushed ball the simulator scores as a near-certain hit died in a glove behind him.
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Earned vs. actual
Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Carson Palmquist.
over 52 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 7.71 · WHIP 1.78 · BABIP against 0.392 (Lg median 0.286)
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs YankeesJul 10, 2026
12 BF · 4 K, 3 H, 1 HR
- Bases allowed
- 5.0
- Above replacement
- +1.1
- vs Blue JaysJul 27, 2026
4 BF · 0 K
- Bases allowed
- 1.0
- Above replacement
- +1.1
- vs BravesJul 30, 2026
8 BF · 0 K, 1 BB, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 3.1
- Above replacement
- +1.0
- vs PiratesJul 4, 2026
8 BF · 3 K, 4 H, 1 HBP
- Bases allowed
- 3.2
- Above replacement
- +0.9
- vs Red SoxJul 1, 2026
5 BF · 1 K, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.8
- Above replacement
- +0.7
Trends
Multi-season trends · Carson Palmquist
HR allowed% down, BB% down, K% up, Barrel% against down, Hard-hit% against down, GB% against up, FB% against down, Pull% against down vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.