Trevor McDonald
2026Grade
Rarely walks anyone and lets the defense work.
McDonald sits right around league average
The simulator expects 0.442 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 67th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Command (73rd percentile). The soft spot is Strikeouts (20th percentile).
310 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Trevor McDonald.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Trevor McDonald | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .408 | .528 | 67th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 8% | 9% | 73rd |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 19% | 22% | 20th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Trevor McDonald leans on his sinker (58% of pitches). His best pitch has been the sinker, saving 3.8 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 112 bases vs a replacement arm's 172 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
17.9 bases saved vs league average, across 1,117 pitches — 1.6 per 100.
Rarely used: four-seam fastball, cutter (2%)
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Mix by batter side
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Trevor McDonald's pitch movement, 2026
None of his pitches have moved from their early-season shape.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.041 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.033 to +0.051
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.450 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.431 to 0.469, based on 177 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.456 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.408 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.390 to 0.427, based on 133 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.316 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.316) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040).
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the opposite field.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Burned 7 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Batters have been credited about 16 more bases than their contact off Trevor McDonald earned — his results have run unlucky so far.
over 215 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 5.12 · WHIP 1.31 · BABIP against 0.298 (Lg median 0.286)
Times through order
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs D-backsJul 1, 2026
19 BF · 5 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 3.1
- Above replacement
- +7.5
- vs D-backsMay 27, 2026
28 BF · 6 K, 2 BB, 6 H, 1 HBP
- Bases allowed
- 8.3
- Above replacement
- +7.2
- vs BravesJun 26, 2026
24 BF · 3 K, 1 BB, 7 H
- Bases allowed
- 6.2
- Above replacement
- +7.2
- vs RockiesJul 12, 2026
25 BF · 4 K, 1 BB, 3 H, 1 HR, 1 HBP
- Bases allowed
- 7.3
- Above replacement
- +6.6
- vs PadresMay 4, 2026
24 BF · 8 K, 2 H, 1 HR, 1 HBP
- Bases allowed
- 7.0
- Above replacement
- +6.3
Trends
Multi-season trends · Trevor McDonald
HR allowed% up, BB% up, K% down vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.