MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Padres @ Giants, 05/04/2026 · MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
May 4, 2026
Padres
2
Final
Game 823228
Giants
3
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"
Padres
26%
· tied 20%
·
Giants
54%
Giants earned it
Giants deserved to win and did, beating Padres 3–2.
This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.