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Not enough modeled data yet to judge his run prevention with confidence.
Christian Roa mixes his slider (35%) and sinker (32%). His best pitch has been the slider, saving 1.5 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
What they throw, how hard, and what misses bats — from pitch tracking, regular season only.
allowed 19 bases vs a replacement arm's 22 over the same batters faced
How the mix shifts against lefty and righty bats. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.532 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.510 to 0.556, based on 24 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.664 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.422 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.664) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.490 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.467 to 0.514, based on 20 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.356 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.406 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.356) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.041). He allows more than the league median against both sides.
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Burned 2 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
5 BF · 0 K, 1 BB, 2 H
3 BF · 1 K
1 BF · 1 K
6 BF · 0 K, 3 H
13 BF · 2 K, 1 BB, 4 H, 1 HBP
