Luke Murphy
2026Grade
Below league average across the board.
Murphy is getting hit harder than most pitchers
The simulator expects 0.475 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 22nd percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is HR Suppression (70th percentile). The soft spot is Command (8th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
70 batters faced · data through 2026-09-15.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.
Pitcher type
Arsenal
Luke Murphy leans on his four-seam fastball (54% of pitches). His best pitch has been the four-seam fastball, saving 1.5 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 33 bases vs a replacement arm's 36 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
0.9 bases cost vs league average, across 245 pitches — 0.4 per 100.
His slider and changeup aren't in the charts below — too few of each were tracked this season.
Rarely used: sinker, curveball (1%)
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Mix by batter side
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Luke Murphy's pitch movement, 2026
His Cutter has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. His slider and changeup aren't in these charts — too few of each were tracked this season.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.042 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.034 to +0.050
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.506 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.484 to 0.527, based on 41 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.581 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.581) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.463 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.441 to 0.485, based on 30 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.395 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.437 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.395) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.042). He allows more than the league median against both sides.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the simulator pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, but the hardest contact goes up the middle.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
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Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs OriolesAug 6, 2026
5 BF · 3 K, 1 BB
- Bases allowed
- 1.0
- Above replacement
- +1.6
- vs PhilliesAug 29, 2026
3 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.2
- Above replacement
- +1.3
- vs RangersAug 11, 2026
8 BF · 0 K, 1 BB, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 2.9
- Above replacement
- +1.2
- vs NationalsSep 11, 2026
3 BF · 0 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.3
- Above replacement
- +1.2
- vs AstrosAug 19, 2026
2 BF · 0 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.0
- Above replacement
- +1.0