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Luke Murphy

2026
Angels· RHP · throws R· 16.0 IP· 6.19 ERA· 1.63 WHIP· 70 BF

Grade

How good he's been, and at what
Fbetter than 22% of pitchers at limiting bases
RelieverStill Searching

Below league average across the board.

Murphy is getting hit harder than most pitchers

The simulator expects 0.475 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 22nd percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is HR Suppression (70th percentile). The soft spot is Command (8th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.

70 batters faced · data through 2026-09-15.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size (not raw season stats), so farther out = better. Spokes are the metric itself; ↓ marks a rate where a LOWER number is better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles vs. 499 qualified pitchers — 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers pooled. He hasn't reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.

Plays like…

Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.

Pitcher type

What kind of pitcher he is, next to the league

Arsenal

What he throws, and what it does

Luke Murphy leans on his four-seam fastball (54% of pitches). His best pitch has been the four-seam fastball, saving 1.5 bases per 100 thrown vs average.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

+3 bases better than a replacement arm this season

allowed 33 bases vs a replacement arm's 36 over the same batters faced

Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.

All pitches

0.9 bases cost vs league average, across 245 pitches — 0.4 per 100.

Four-Seam Fastball
54%
95.7 mph · RHP median 95.1
26% whiffs · Lg median 21%
saved 1.5 per 1002.5 total
Cutter
26%
90.4 mph · RHP median 90.2
18% whiffs · Lg median 22%
cost 4.2 per 1003.4 total
Slider
not charted
10%
84.3 mph · RHP median 86.9
Changeup
not charted
8%
92.4 mph · RHP median 87.1

His slider and changeup aren't in the charts below — too few of each were tracked this season.

Rarely used: sinker, curveball (1%)

How to read this chart
What they throw, how hard, and what misses bats — from pitch tracking, regular season only.

Mix by batter side

Four-Seam Fastball
52% vs LHH · RHP median 40%
58% vs RHH · RHP median 33%
Cutter
28% vs LHH · RHP median 20%
23% vs RHH · RHP median 19%
How to read this chart
How the mix shifts against lefty and righty bats. Medians are among right-handed pitchers who throw that pitch at least 3% of the time — between 145 and 374 of them, depending on the pitch. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.

Luke Murphy's pitch movement, 2026

His Cutter has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape.

Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.

Luke Murphy's pitch movement, 20260661218in← glove sidearm side →more risemore drop
Four-Seam FastballFF
Rise 15.1 in
−0.5 vs Lg median
Break 10.3 in
+2.6 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
CutterFC
Rise 6.8 in
−0.8 vs Lg median
Break −3.4 in
−1.2 vs Lg median
Vs. early season changed
Early season → nowLg medianCurrent-dot uncertainty
How to read this chart
Each dot is a pitch's current shape — horizontal break (arm side vs. glove side) by induced vertical break (rise vs. drop). Both axes are in inches of break. The trail runs from this season's earliest tracked outings — the faint, thin end — up to today's solid dot; a trail with only a few segments just means fewer tracked outings. The soft halo around each dot is how far that dot could sit off on its own, just from ordinary outing-to-outing wobble. Don't read a long trail as proof on its own that a pitch changed. Every pitch in baseball loses a little break through midsummer and gets it back by September — the same shift two full seasons back agree on — and the trail shows that league-wide seasonal swing alongside whatever this pitcher did himself. The sentence at the top of this card has the league's share taken out, so it can read “has not moved” above a trail that looks long. That is the two marks measuring different things, not a mistake. A pitch counts as changed only once it sits at least two inches from its own early-season shape — a verdict about this pitcher against himself, never a comparison with anyone else. League median: the small hollow ring marks it, on the same two measurements. Where it sits far from a pitch's dot, a line joins the two — and on a wider screen the ring carries that pitch's code as well — so a distant ring is never orphaned; where it sits close, neither is drawn, because the pairing is already obvious. League median is missing entirely for a pitch marked *: too few pitchers throw it for one to be worth setting, so it is plotted without a reference ring. For the exact dates a pitch changed, see the by-appearance chart below.

By appearance

How the stuff has held up outing to outing

One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. His slider and changeup aren't in these charts — too few of each were tracked this season.

Platoon splits

How he fares against lefties and righties

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.042 EB/PA allowed (modeled).

50% probable range: +0.034 to +0.050

vs LHB41 PA0.506

vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.506 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.484 to 0.527, based on 41 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.581 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.

Raw vs LHB rate (0.581) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.

vs RHB30 PA0.463

vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.463 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.441 to 0.485, based on 30 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.395 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.437 EB/PA.

Raw vs RHB rate (0.395) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.

0.4260.4540.4820.5100.538
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.042). He allows more than the league median against both sides.

How to read this chart
  • Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
  • His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the simulator pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
  • Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
  • These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
  • Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.

Contact allowed

What hitters do when they connect

Batters go to the pull side off him most often, but the hardest contact goes up the middle.

Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Where every ball hit off Luke Murphy landed this season.
How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB) — what the contact was worth, regardless of what the defense did with it. So a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Best games

His biggest outings this year

Best games

His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.