Erik Tolman
2026Grade
Misses bats in bunches; lives with the walks.
Tolman has been below average at limiting damage
The simulator expects 0.457 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 44th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Quiet Contact (82nd percentile). The soft spot is Command (12th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
67 batters faced · data through 2026-09-27.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.
Pitcher type
Arsenal
Erik Tolman leans on his four-seam fastball (52% of pitches). His best pitch has been the changeup, saving 6.6 bases per 100 thrown vs average, and his four-seam fastball runs 3.3 mph above the league norm.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 28 bases vs a replacement arm's 35 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
1.3 bases saved vs league average, across 289 pitches — 0.4 per 100.
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Mix by batter side
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Erik Tolman's pitch movement, 2026
None of his pitches have moved from their early-season shape.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs LHB than vs RHB by 0.038 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.029 to +0.047
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.391 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.367 to 0.412, based on 26 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.424 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.451 EB/PA.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.429 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.407 to 0.451, based on 41 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.442 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.435 EB/PA.
About the typical split for a lefty arm (median 0.038). He allows less than the league median against both sides, so his weaker side is still a strength — not a hole.
How to read this chart
- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the simulator pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the opposite field off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the pull side.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage 2 times — crushed balls the simulator scores as near-certain hits that died in gloves behind him.
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Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs MarlinsAug 31, 2026
5 BF · 4 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.1
- Above replacement
- +2.5
- vs MarlinsAug 29, 2026
7 BF · 2 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.6
- Above replacement
- +2.1
- vs PadresSep 8, 2026
6 BF · 0 K, 3 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.5
- Above replacement
- +1.6
- vs MarlinsAug 22, 2026
4 BF · 1 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.5
- Above replacement
- +1.5
- vs CardinalsSep 19, 2026
4 BF · 1 K, 3 H
- Bases allowed
- 0.8
- Above replacement
- +1.3