Braxton Ashcraft
2026Grade
Misses bats in bunches; lives with the walks.
Ashcraft is among the league's best at preventing damage
The simulator expects 0.417 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 90th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Command (95th percentile). The soft spot is Quiet Contact (24th percentile).
602 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Braxton Ashcraft.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Braxton Ashcraft | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .514 | .528 | 90th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 6% | 9% | 95th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 25% | 22% | 85th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Braxton Ashcraft mixes his four-seam fastball (32%) and curveball (26%). His best pitch has been the sinker, saving 3.5 bases per 100 thrown vs average, and his four-seam fastball runs 2.1 mph above the league norm.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 242 bases vs a replacement arm's 335 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
25.3 bases saved vs league average, across 2,184 pitches — 1.2 per 100.
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Mix by batter side
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Braxton Ashcraft's pitch movement, 2026
None of his pitches have moved from their early-season shape.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.042 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.034 to +0.051
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.447 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.431 to 0.463, based on 347 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.460 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.405 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.389 to 0.422, based on 256 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.338 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.338) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040). He allows less than the league median against both sides, so his weaker side is still a strength — not a hole.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the pull side.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage 3 times — crushed balls the simulator scores as near-certain hits that died in gloves behind him.
Burned 7 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Batters have been credited about 9 more bases than their contact off Braxton Ashcraft earned — his results have run unlucky so far.
over 401 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 3.68 · WHIP 1.08 · BABIP against 0.279 (Lg median 0.286)
Times through order
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs OriolesApr 5, 2026
21 BF · 8 K, 4 H
- Bases allowed
- 3.2
- Above replacement
- +8.5
- vs MarlinsAug 13, 2026
28 BF · 10 K, 1 BB, 3 H, 1 HR
- Bases allowed
- 7.4
- Above replacement
- +8.2
- vs RedsMay 3, 2026
27 BF · 6 K, 2 BB, 4 H
- Bases allowed
- 7.7
- Above replacement
- +7.4
- vs MarinersJun 24, 2026
23 BF · 10 K, 5 H
- Bases allowed
- 6.3
- Above replacement
- +6.5
- vs AthleticsJun 17, 2026
25 BF · 7 K, 3 BB, 4 H
- Bases allowed
- 7.6
- Above replacement
- +6.3
Trends
Multi-season trends · Braxton Ashcraft
HR allowed% up, BB% down, Barrel% against up, FB% against up vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.