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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Orioles at Pirates · Apr 5, 2026

Orioles
2
Final
Pirates
8
Simulated win probability ("deserved to win")Orioles 1% · tied 3% · Pirates 96%

Pirates earned it

Pirates deserved to win and did, beating Orioles 8-2.

  • This is the quick view. The full recap, with batted balls, the luck ledger and pitcher lines, is not built for every game.
  • The simulator replays the game ten thousand times from each batted ball's exit velocity, launch angle and spray angle, and Deserve-to-Win is the share of replays each team wins.