His grade shows how good he has been, and at what.
C+better than 51% of qualified pitchers at limiting bases
StarterPower Arm
Misses bats in bunches; lives with the walks.
Cantillo sits right around league average
The simulator expects him to allow 0.452 bases per batter faced, better than 51% of qualified pitchers. His best skill is getting strikeouts (80th percentile). His weakest skill is limiting walks (13th percentile).
His grade rests on 687 batters faced, with data through 2026-09-27.
▸How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size, not a raw season stat, and farther out is better. A ↓ marks a stat where a lower number is better, and its spoke is flipped so farther out still means better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles compare him with 517 qualified pitchers, those with 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers together.
Plays like…
Each of these pitchers shares his archetype and sits closest to him in xEB/PA. Pick one to see him side by side with Joey Cantillo.
This map shows what kind of pitcher he is, next to the league.
Pitcher type
He lands in the “Misses bats, but gets hit hard” corner of the map.
League best:K% − BB% Jacob Misiorowski(26.8%)Hard-hit% allowed Blake Snell(29.0%)
▸How to read this chart
Two skills separate pitching styles: strikeout rate minus walk rate, where higher is better, and hard-hit rate allowed, where lower is better. The hard-hit axis is flipped, so the best corner is the top right. Each dot is a pitcher with 80+ batters faced this season, sized by batters faced. The dashed lines are the league median on each skill, and the league best on each is named above the chart. Click any dot to open that pitcher's page.
Joey Cantillo
League median
Percentile
Bases per ball in play(lower = better)
.521
.527
—
Walk rate(lower = better)
12%
9%
13th
Strikeout rate(higher = better)
24%
22%
80th
A higher percentile is better, and the 99th is the top of the league.
Arsenal
These cards show what he throws and what each pitch does.
Joey Cantillo mixes his four-seam fastball (33%) and curveball (31%). His best pitch has been the cutter, saving 1.5 bases per 100 thrown against league average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
▲ +100 bases better than a replacement arm this season
He allowed about 303 estimated bases, against a replacement arm's 403 over the same batters faced.
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
Bases vs average
All pitches
He saved 0.5 bases against league average across 2,748 pitches, or 0.0 per 100 pitches.
Lg avg
Four-Seam Fastball
33%
92.2 mph · LHP median 93.5
15% whiffs · Lg median 21%
cost 1.5 per 10013.7 total
Curveball
31%
80.0 mph · LHP median 79.9
36% whiffs · Lg median 29%
saved 1.3 per 10011.0 total
Changeup
24%
81.0 mph · LHP median 85.1
39% whiffs · Lg median 30%
saved 0.4 per 1002.5 total
Cutter
8%
87.1 mph · LHP median 88.0
25% whiffs · Lg median 22%
saved 1.5 per 1003.4 total
Slider
4%
82.8 mph · LHP median 85.6
26% whiffs · Lg median 33%
cost 2.4 per 1002.7 total
▸How to read this chart
Each row is a pitch he throws at least 3% of the time, from pitch tracking in the regular season. The bar is how often he throws it, then its average velocity and its whiff rate, the share of swings that miss. Beside the velocity and the whiff rate is the median for that pitch, among pitchers of his hand for velocity and across the league for whiffs. More whiffs are better for a pitcher, while usage and velocity describe how he pitches. The Bases vs average bars score each pitch against a league-average pitch in the same count, and a bar to the left (saved) is better.
Mix by batter side
Four-Seam Fastball
35% vs LHH · LHP median 34%
32% vs RHH · LHP median 41%
Curveball
25% vs LHH · LHP median 12%
33% vs RHH · LHP median 17%
Changeup
14% vs LHH · LHP median 14%
28% vs RHH · LHP median 32%
Cutter
16% vs LHH · LHP median 19%
6% vs RHH · LHP median 22%
Slider
11% vs LHH · LHP median 33%
2% vs RHH · LHP median 18%
▸How to read this chart
Each row shows how often he throws a pitch to left-handed hitters (LHH) and right-handed hitters (RHH), next to the median for pitchers of his hand (LHP median). Medians come from left-handed pitchers who throw that pitch at least 3% of the time. Between 26 and 149 of them qualify, depending on the pitch. A mix is a plan, so a higher or lower share is neither better nor worse. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.
Joey Cantillo's pitch movement, 2026
His Changeup has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape, but his other 4 have not.
The verdict above compares each pitch with his own early-season outings in 2026, not with other pitchers, after taking out the league-wide drift in break.
Pitch
Risein · vs Lg median
Breakin · vs Lg median
Vs. early season
Four-Seam FastballFF
Rise 15.7 in
0.0 vs Lg median
Break 7.2 in
−0.5 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
CurveballCU
Rise −17.1 in
−6.6 vs Lg median
Break −9.7 in
−1.1 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
ChangeupCH
Rise 12.4 in
+8.3 vs Lg median
Break 10.0 in
−4.2 vs Lg median
Vs. early season changed
CutterFC
Rise 7.4 in
−0.3 vs Lg median
Break −1.5 in
+0.6 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
SliderSL
Rise −6.4 in
−8.2 vs Lg median
Break −4.5 in
−0.8 vs Lg median
Vs. early season steady
Early season → nowLg medianNormal wobble around the dot
▸How to read this chart
Each dot is a pitch's current break in inches, averaged over his latest outings. Higher is more rise and further right is more arm-side break, and neither is better or worse. The faint trail runs from his early-season outings to the dot, and the soft halo shows how far normal noise can move it. League median is the small hollow ring, and a pitch marked * has none because too few pitchers throw it. The “changed” verdict removes a league-wide drift that the trail still shows, so a long trail can read as steady. The by-appearance chart below has the exact dates. More on the About page
By appearance
These charts follow his velocity, movement and mix from outing to outing.
These charts follow his velocity, movement and pitch mix one outing at a time, and each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. The velocity and movement charts also shade the middle of the league for scale.
Platoon splits
This section splits his results against lefties and righties.
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
He handles lefty bats better than righty bats, by 0.037 EB/PA allowed.
50% probable range: +0.028 to +0.045
vs LHB174 PA0.409
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.409 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.394 to 0.426, based on 174 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.453 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.451 EB/PA.
Lg median
vs RHB516 PA0.446
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.446 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.431 to 0.461, based on 516 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.447 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.435 EB/PA.
Lg median
0.3860.4070.4270.4480.469
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league
His split is about typical for a lefty arm (median 0.038). Against righty bats he allows more than the league median, which is a real platoon weakness.
▸How to read this chart
Each dot is his estimate against that side, with its 50% probable range as the bar. These are bases allowed, so lower is better.
The diamond is his raw rate, which small samples make noisy, so the simulator pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy value.
The dashed tick is the league median, and the shaded strip is the middle half of pitchers with 100 or more batters faced.
The two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed, not the xEB/PA headline.
Tap or hover a mark for its number. LHB and RHB are left- and right-handed batters. More on the About page
Contact allowed
These cards show what hitters do when they make contact.
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's also where they do the most damage.
Pull side and opposite field depend on which side each batter hits from, so this pools every hitter he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Every ball hit off Joey Cantillo this season is drawn where it landed.
Dot color is estimated bases (EB), what the contact was worth no matter what the defense did with it. Darker means more bases, so a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.
Deserved vs. actual
Batters have been credited with about 6 more bases than their contact off Joey Cantillo deserved, so his results have been unlucky so far.
Deserved by the contact he allowed223
Actually credited to batters229
Both bars count 427 balls in play, with walks and strikeouts left out.
▸How to read this chart
Every ball in play is worth the bases its exit velocity, launch angle and direction usually produce. If batters were credited with more than that, his results have been unlucky, and fewer means lucky. BABIP against is the batting average on balls in play he allows, next to the league median.
ERA 3.62 · WHIP 1.42 · BABIP against 0.310 (Lg median 0.286)
Times through the order
These charts show what happens as hitters see him a second and third time.
Best games
These are his biggest outings this season.
Best games
These are his best outings this season, ranked by bases saved against a replacement arm.
