Javier Assad
2026Grade
Rarely walks anyone and lets the defense work.
Assad sits right around league average
The simulator expects 0.447 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 60th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Command (86th percentile). The soft spot is Quiet Contact (2nd percentile).
332 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Javier Assad.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Javier Assad | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .480 | .528 | 60th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 7% | 9% | 86th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 18% | 22% | 8th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Javier Assad mixes his sinker (42%) and four-seam fastball (19%). His best pitch has been the slider, saving 4.0 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 143 bases vs a replacement arm's 185 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
5.9 bases saved vs league average, across 1,305 pitches — 0.5 per 100.
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Mix by batter side
Compared with the league, his sinker tilts 19 points more toward righties.
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Javier Assad's pitch movement, 2026
His Cutter and Curveball have moved 2+ inches from their early-season shapes.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.042 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.034 to +0.050
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.464 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.445 to 0.483, based on 175 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.519 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.519) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.422 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.404 to 0.442, based on 157 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.345 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.345) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040). Against lefty bats he allows more than the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the opposite field.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage once — a crushed ball the simulator scores as a near-certain hit died in a glove behind him.
Burned 5 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Javier Assad.
over 252 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 3.46 · WHIP 1.10 · BABIP against 0.236 (Lg median 0.286)
Times through order
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs GiantsJun 7, 2026
21 BF · 5 K, 1 BB, 1 H, 1 HBP
- Bases allowed
- 4.0
- Above replacement
- +7.7
- vs GiantsJun 12, 2026
21 BF · 5 K, 1 BB, 3 H
- Bases allowed
- 5.5
- Above replacement
- +6.2
- vs RaysApr 7, 2026
19 BF · 3 K, 2 BB, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 5.1
- Above replacement
- +5.5
- vs MetsApr 19, 2026
20 BF · 3 K, 3 H, 1 HR
- Bases allowed
- 7.1
- Above replacement
- +4.1
- vs CardinalsJul 30, 2026
20 BF · 6 K, 2 BB, 6 H
- Bases allowed
- 7.6
- Above replacement
- +3.5
Trends
Multi-season trends · Javier Assad
HR allowed% up, BB% down, K% up, Barrel% against up, Hard-hit% against up, FB% against up vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.