Keegan Thompson

2026

Rockies· RHP · throws R· 12.0 IP· 8.25 ERA· 1.75 WHIP· 57 BF

Grade

How good he's been, and at what

F2nd percentile run prevention

StarterHittable Strike-Thrower

Pounds the zone, but too much of it gets hit hard.

Thompson is getting hit harder than most pitchers

The simulator expects 0.563 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 2nd percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Command (85th percentile). The soft spot is Quiet Contact (6th percentile).

Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size (not raw season stats), so farther out = better.
Percentiles vs. 424 qualified pitchers — 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers pooled. He hasn't reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.
57 batters faced · data through 2026-07-29.

Plays like…

Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.

Mason EnglertRays

Grayson RodriguezAngels

Ryan FeltnerRockies

Austin VothBlue Jays

Pitcher type

What kind of pitcher he is, next to the league

Arsenal

What he throws, and what it does

Keegan Thompson mixes his four-seam fastball (29%) and cutter (24%). No pitch has beaten league-average results yet — the four-seam fastball has come closest.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

What they throw, how hard, and what misses bats — from pitch tracking, regular season only.

−4 bases worse than a replacement arm this season

allowed 38 bases vs a replacement arm's 34 over the same batters faced

Results

All pitches

cost 7.1 per 1004.0 cost across 56

Four-Seam Fastball

29%

92.3 mph · lg 95.1

16% whiffs · lg 18%

cost 7.2 per 1004.0 cost across 56

Cutter

24%

88.3 mph · lg 90.1

—

Sinker

23%

92.1 mph · lg 94.8

—

Sweeper

10%

83.5 mph · lg 83.5

—

Curveball

80.5 mph · lg 81.6

—

Changeup

86.3 mph · lg 87.2

—

Mix by batter side

How the mix shifts against lefty and righty bats. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.

Four-Seam Fastball

35% vs LHH

25% vs RHH

By appearance

How the stuff has held up outing to outing

One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.

Platoon splits

How he fares against lefties and righties

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

Dot = shrunk true-talent estimate; bar = 50% probable range. Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
Faint diamond = his raw, unshrunk rate against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy estimate.
These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
Gray tick (marked “lg”) = league median vs that side; the faint gray band behind it spans the middle half of the league (25th–75th percentile).
Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.

vs LHB23 PA0.633

Raw vs LHB rate (0.687) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.

vs RHB34 PA0.592

0.3760.4530.5310.6080.685

← better (fewer bases allowed)worse →

Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.041 EB/PA allowed (modeled).

50% probable range: +0.034 to +0.049

About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.041). He allows more than the league median against both sides.

Contact allowed

What hitters do when they connect

Batters go to the pull side off him most often, but the hardest contact goes up the middle.

Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Where every ball hit off Keegan Thompson landed this season.
Dots are colored by estimated bases (EB) — pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory).
Filled dots are hits; hollow rings are outs — a dark ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down.
Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two; use the ▶ links below to watch on Baseball Savant.

hit · out

EBlowhigh

vs Bryce EldridgeHome run

EV 108 mph · LA 28° · EB 3.8

05/31 vs Giants

vs Oswald PerazaDouble

EV 104 mph · LA 25° · EB 3.4

06/03 vs Angels

vs Mike TroutOutRobbed

EV 102 mph · LA 27° · EB 3.0

06/03 vs Angels

vs Garrett MitchellDouble

EV 103 mph · LA 23° · EB 2.2

06/07 vs Brewers

vs Gary SánchezDouble

EV 91 mph · LA 13° · EB 2.0

06/07 vs Brewers

Luck check

Escaped damage 2 times — crushed balls the simulator scores as near-certain hits that died in gloves behind him.

vs Mike TroutOutRobbed

EV 102 mph · LA 27° · EB 3.0

06/03 vs Angels

Times through order

What happens the third time they see him

Best games

His biggest outings this year

Best games

His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.

Date	Opponent	Result	Bases allowed	Above replacement
May 23, 2026	D-backs	13 BF · 2 K, 2 BB, 3 H	4.3	+2.3
May 29, 2026	Giants	4 BF · 1 K, 1 H	1.1	+1.0
Jun 7, 2026	Brewers	17 BF · 3 K, 6 H	11.1	-0.9
May 31, 2026	Giants	10 BF · 2 K, 4 H, 1 HR	7.9	-2.8
Jun 3, 2026	Angels	13 BF · 3 K, 5 H	11.9	-5.3