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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Keegan Thompson

2026
Rockies· RHP · throws R· 12.0 IP· 8.25 ERA· 1.75 WHIP· 57 BF

Grade

How good he's been, and at what
Dbetter than 39% of pitchers at limiting bases
StarterCommand Artist

Rarely walks anyone and lets the defense work.

Thompson has been below average at limiting damage

The simulator expects 0.461 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 39th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Command (83rd percentile). The soft spot is Quiet Contact (22nd percentile).

57 batters faced · data through 2026-09-11.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size (not raw season stats), so farther out = better. Spokes are the metric itself; ↓ marks a rate where a LOWER number is better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles vs. 494 qualified pitchers — 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers pooled. He hasn't reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.

Plays like…

Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.

Roki SasakiDodgersMatthew BoydCubsDavis MartinWhite SoxAndrew SearsTigers

Pitcher type

What kind of pitcher he is, next to the league

Arsenal

What he throws, and what it does

Keegan Thompson mixes his four-seam fastball (29%) and cutter (24%). No pitch has beaten league-average results yet — the four-seam fastball has come closest.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

−8 bases worse than a replacement arm this season

allowed 38 bases vs a replacement arm's 30 over the same batters faced

Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.

All pitches

4.0 bases cost vs league average, across 56 pitches — 7.1 per 100.

Four-Seam Fastball
29%
92.3 mph · RHP median 95.1
19% whiffs · Lg median 21%
cost 7.2 per 1004.0 total
Cutter
not charted
24%
88.3 mph · RHP median 90.2
—
—
Sinker
not charted
23%
92.1 mph · RHP median 94.7
—
—
Sweeper
not charted
10%
83.5 mph · RHP median 83.5
—
—
Curveball
not charted
8%
80.5 mph · RHP median 81.2
—
—
Changeup
not charted
7%
86.3 mph · RHP median 87.1
—
—

Only his four-seam fastball is in the charts below — the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.

How to read this chart
What they throw, how hard, and what misses bats — from pitch tracking, regular season only.

Mix by batter side

Four-Seam Fastball
35% vs LHH · RHP median 40%
25% vs RHH · RHP median 33%
How to read this chart
How the mix shifts against lefty and righty bats. Medians are among right-handed pitchers who throw that pitch at least 3% of the time — 371 of them. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.

By appearance

How the stuff has held up outing to outing

One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. Only his four-seam fastball is in these charts — the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.

Platoon splits

How he fares against lefties and righties

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.042 EB/PA allowed (modeled).

50% probable range: +0.034 to +0.050

vs LHB23 PA0.494

vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.494 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.472 to 0.516, based on 23 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.687 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.455 EB/PA.

Raw vs LHB rate (0.687) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.

vs RHB34 PA0.452

vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.452 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.431 to 0.476, based on 34 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.600 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.438 EB/PA.

Raw vs RHB rate (0.600) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.

0.4210.4470.4740.5000.527
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.043). He allows more than the league median against both sides.

How to read this chart
  • Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
  • His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the simulator pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
  • “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
  • These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
  • Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.

Contact allowed

What hitters do when they connect

Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the pull side.

Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Where every ball hit off Keegan Thompson landed this season.
hit · out
EBlowhigh
vs Bryce EldridgeHome run
EV 108 mph · LA 28° · EB 3.8
05/31 vs Giants
vs Oswald PerazaDouble
EV 104 mph · LA 25° · EB 3.4
06/03 vs Angels
vs Mike TroutOutRobbed
EV 102 mph · LA 27° · EB 3.0
06/03 vs Angels
vs Garrett MitchellDouble
EV 103 mph · LA 23° · EB 2.2
06/07 vs Brewers
vs Gary SánchezDouble
EV 91 mph · LA 13° · EB 2.0
06/07 vs Brewers

Luck check

Escaped damage 2 times — crushed balls the simulator scores as near-certain hits that died in gloves behind him.

vs Mike TroutOutRobbed
EV 102 mph · LA 27° · EB 3.0
06/03 vs Angels
How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB) — what the contact was worth, regardless of what the defense did with it. So a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Times through order

What happens the third time they see him

Best games

His biggest outings this year

Best games

His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.

Multi-season trends · Keegan Thompson

HR allowed% down, BB% down, K% down vs his previous season

Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.