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Carlos Carrasco

2026
Braves· RHP · throws R· 16.2 IP· 5.94 ERA· 1.44 WHIP· 73 batters faced

Grade

His grade shows how good he has been, and at what.
Fbetter than 18% of qualified pitchers at limiting bases
RelieverCommand Artist

Rarely walks anyone and lets the defense work.

Carrasco allows more bases than most pitchers

The simulator expects him to allow 0.478 bases per batter faced, better than 18% of qualified pitchers. His best skill is limiting walks (82nd percentile). His weakest skill is getting strikeouts (6th percentile). Short relief outings push strikeout rates up a little, so read his K% spoke with that in mind.

His grade rests on 73 batters faced, with data through 2026-09-27.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size, not a raw season stat, and farther out is better. A ↓ marks a stat where a lower number is better, and its spoke is flipped so farther out still means better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles compare him with 517 qualified pitchers, those with 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers together. He has not reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.

Plays like…

Each of these pitchers shares his archetype and sits closest to him in xEB/PA.

Seth LugoRoyalsXzavion CurryMetsChase PettyRedsHayden JuengerAthletics

Pitcher type

This map shows what kind of pitcher he is, next to the league.

Arsenal

These cards show what he throws and what each pitch does.

Carlos Carrasco mixes his changeup (31%) and sinker (27%). No pitch has beaten league-average results yet, and the changeup has come closest.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

−4 bases worse than a replacement arm this season

He allowed about 42 estimated bases, against a replacement arm's 38 over the same batters faced.

Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.

All pitches

He cost 2.8 bases against league average across 143 pitches, or 2.0 per 100 pitches.

Changeup
31%
85.7 mph · RHP median 87.1
21% whiffs · Lg median 30%
cost 0.5 per 1000.3 total
Sinker
27%
90.8 mph · RHP median 94.7
13% whiffs · Lg median 13%
cost 3.8 per 1002.5 total
Cutter
not charted
15%
89.5 mph · RHP median 90.1
—
—
Slider
not charted
14%
86.2 mph · RHP median 86.9
—
—
Four-Seam Fastball
not charted
13%
91.8 mph · RHP median 95.1
—
—

Only his changeup and sinker are in the charts below, because the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.

How to read this chart
Each row is a pitch he throws at least 3% of the time, from pitch tracking in the regular season. The bar is how often he throws it, then its average velocity and its whiff rate, the share of swings that miss. Beside the velocity and the whiff rate is the median for that pitch, among pitchers of his hand for velocity and across the league for whiffs. More whiffs are better for a pitcher, while usage and velocity describe how he pitches. The Bases vs average bars score each pitch against a league-average pitch in the same count, and a bar to the left (saved) is better.

Mix by batter side

Changeup
35% vs LHH · RHP median 30%
25% vs RHH · RHP median 12%
Sinker
19% vs LHH · RHP median 16%
39% vs RHH · RHP median 33%
How to read this chart
Each row shows how often he throws a pitch to left-handed hitters (LHH) and right-handed hitters (RHH), next to the median for pitchers of his hand (RHP median). Medians come from right-handed pitchers who throw that pitch at least 3% of the time. Between 114 and 213 of them qualify, depending on the pitch. A mix is a plan, so a higher or lower share is neither better nor worse. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.

Carlos Carrasco's pitch movement, 2026

Carlos Carrasco's pitch movement, 202661206in← glove sidearm side →more risemore drop
ChangeupCH
Rise 2.3 in
−1.8 vs Lg median
Break 7.9 in
−6.3 vs Lg median
SinkerSI
Rise 5.4 in
−2.9 vs Lg median
Break 12.6 in
−2.6 vs Lg median
Early season → nowLg medianNormal wobble around the dot
How to read this chart
Each dot is a pitch's current break in inches, averaged over his latest outings. Higher is more rise and further right is more arm-side break, and neither is better or worse. The faint trail runs from his early-season outings to the dot, and the soft halo shows how far normal noise can move it. League median is the small hollow ring, and a pitch marked * has none because too few pitchers throw it. The by-appearance chart below has the exact dates. More on the About page

By appearance

These charts follow his velocity, movement and mix from outing to outing.

These charts follow his velocity, movement and pitch mix one outing at a time, and each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. The velocity and movement charts also shade the middle of the league for scale. Only his changeup and sinker are in these charts, because the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.

Platoon splits

This section splits his results against lefties and righties.

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

He handles righty bats better than lefty bats, by 0.041 EB/PA allowed.

50% probable range: +0.033 to +0.049

vs LHB45 PA0.564

vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.564 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.540 to 0.586, based on 45 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.521 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.451 EB/PA.

vs RHB28 PA0.523

vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.523 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.500 to 0.546, based on 28 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.649 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.435 EB/PA.

His raw rate vs RHB (0.649) is off this scale. Small samples can push a raw rate this far, which is why the dot, the shrunk estimate, is the number to trust.

0.4170.4640.5100.5570.604
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

His split is about typical for a righty arm (median 0.042). He allows more than the league median against both sides.

How to read this chart
  • Each dot is his estimate against that side, with its 50% probable range as the bar. These are bases allowed, so lower is better.
  • The diamond is his raw rate, which small samples make noisy, so the simulator pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy value.
  • The dashed tick is the league median, and the shaded strip is the middle half of pitchers with 100 or more batters faced.
  • The two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed, not the xEB/PA headline.
  • Tap or hover a mark for its number. LHB and RHB are left- and right-handed batters. More on the About page

Contact allowed

These cards show what hitters do when they make contact.

Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's also where they do the most damage.

Pull side and opposite field depend on which side each batter hits from, so this pools every hitter he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Every ball hit off Carlos Carrasco this season is drawn where it landed.
hit · out
EBlowhigh
vs Tyrone TaylorHome run
103 mph · 28° · worth 3.4 bases
07/05 vs Mets
vs Fernando Tatis Jr.Home run
107 mph · 29° · worth 3.1 bases
06/23 vs Padres
vs Jarren DuranHome run
104 mph · 24° · worth 3.0 bases
05/27 vs Red Sox
vs Bo BichetteDouble
102 mph · 26° · worth 1.8 bases
07/05 vs Mets
vs Jacob YoungOutLucky out
102 mph · 17° · worth 1.6 bases
04/23 vs Nationals

Luck check

One out behind him came on a ball the simulator values at 1.5 bases or more.

vs Jacob YoungOutLucky out
102 mph · 17° · worth 1.6 bases
04/23 vs Nationals
How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB), what the contact was worth no matter what the defense did with it. Darker means more bases, so a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Deserved vs. actual

Batters have been credited with about the bases their contact off Carlos Carrasco deserved.

Deserved by the contact he allowed37
Actually credited to batters32

Both bars count 61 balls in play, with walks and strikeouts left out.

How to read this chart
Every ball in play is worth the bases its exit velocity, launch angle and direction usually produce. If batters were credited with more than that, his results have been unlucky, and fewer means lucky. BABIP against is the batting average on balls in play he allows, next to the league median.

ERA 5.94 · WHIP 1.44 · BABIP against 0.310 (Lg median 0.286)

Times through the order

These charts show what happens as hitters see him a second and third time.

Best games

These are his biggest outings this season.

Best games

These are his best outings this season, ranked by bases saved against a replacement arm.

Multi-season trends · Carlos Carrasco

Compared with last season, his HR allowed% is down, his BB% is down, his K% is down, his Barrel% against is down, his GB% against is up, his FB% against is down and his Pull% against is up.

Actual rates show what happened on the field, season by season.