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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Andrew Pinckney

2026
Nationals· LF · bats R · throws R· 29 PA

Grade

How good he's been, and at what
Dbetter than 35% of hitters at creating bases
Aggressive Power

Big pop, rarely takes a walk.

Hits it hard with little to show for it

Andrew Pinckney squares the ball up — harder contact than 89% of qualified hitters. The strikeouts pile up, though — only 12% of qualified hitters whiff more often. Early-season read — only 29 plate appearances so far.

29 plate appearances · data through 2026-09-19.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size — not raw season stats — so farther out = better. Spokes are the metric itself; ↓ marks a rate where a LOWER number is better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles vs. 528 qualified hitters — 50+ plate appearances. He hasn't reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.

Plays like…

Same archetype, nearest by rate — the hitters whose profile looks most like this one.

Brady HouseNationalsAmed RosarioYankeesJasson DomínguezYankeesTanner MurrayWhite Sox

Hitter type

What kind of hitter he is, next to the league

Platoon splits

How he fares against lefties and righties

Platoon splits (EB/PA)

Better vs LHP than vs RHP by 0.041 EB/PA (modeled).

50% probable range: +0.016 to +0.066

vs LHP16 PA0.445

vs LHP: shrunk estimate 0.445 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.415 to 0.475, based on 16 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.486 EB/PA. League median vs LHP: 0.426 EB/PA.

vs RHP13 PA0.404

vs RHP: shrunk estimate 0.404 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.374 to 0.429, based on 13 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.179 EB/PA. League median vs RHP: 0.435 EB/PA.

Raw vs RHP rate (0.179) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.

0.3620.3930.4250.4560.487
← worsebetter →
Above league medianBelow50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

A wider split than the typical righty bat's (median 0.033). Against righties he sits below the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.

He sits in the league's middle half vs both lefties and righties.

How to read this chart
  • Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
  • His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that hand — small samples make it noisy, which is why the simulator pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
  • “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all hitters against that hand.
  • Shrunk splits beat raw splits decisively at low PA counts and converge with them as playing time builds — individual platoon gaps need roughly 1,000+ PA vs a hand before the raw number alone can be trusted.

How he hits

What happens when he puts a ball in play

He hits the ball to the opposite field most often, and that's where his hardest contact goes.

Best batted balls

Where every ball Andrew Pinckney put in play landed this season.
hit · out
EBlowhigh
vs Cristopher SánchezHome run
EV 109 mph · LA 20° · EB 2.6
08/06 vs Phillies
vs Eury PérezSingle
EV 75 mph · LA 27° · EB 0.9
08/22 vs Marlins
vs David PetersonSingle
EV 110 mph · LA 2° · EB 0.8
08/12 vs Cubs
vs Cristopher SánchezSingle
EV 72 mph · LA 48° · EB 0.7
09/15 vs Phillies
vs Zach AgnosOut
EV 101 mph · LA 2° · EB 0.6
08/26 vs Rockies

Luck check

2 lucky hits — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass.

vs Sean ManaeaTripleLucky
EV 97 mph · LA 24° · EB 0.3 · xBA .137
08/15 vs Mets
How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB) — what the contact was worth, regardless of what the defense did with it. So a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball that got caught. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Best games

His biggest games this year

Best games

His best games this season by bases above replacement.