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Rays at Orioles · May 25, 2026

Simulated win probability ("deserved to win")Rays 39% · tied 11% · Orioles 50%

Orioles edged it

The simulator saw a near coin flip, and Orioles came out ahead of Rays 9-7.

  • This is the quick view. The full recap, with batted balls, the luck ledger and pitcher lines, is not built for every game.
  • The simulator replays the game ten thousand times from each batted ball's exit velocity, launch angle and spray angle, and Deserve-to-Win is the share of replays each team wins.