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Cubs at Guardians · Apr 5, 2026
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Cubs 52% · tied 15% · Guardians 33%
Guardians stole one
Cubs did more to deserve the win, but Guardians took it 6–5.
- This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
- Deserve-to-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.