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May 16, 2026
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Reds 12% · tied 8% · Guardians 80%
Guardians earned it
Guardians deserved to win and did, beating Reds 7–4.
- This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
- Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.