MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Red Sox @ Astros, 04/01/2026 · MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
Apr 1, 2026
Red Sox
4
Final
Game 824211
Astros
6
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"
Red Sox
22%
· tied 14%
·
Astros
65%
Astros earned it
Astros deserved to win and did, beating Red Sox 6–4.
This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.