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Cardinals at Marlins · Apr 20, 2026

Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Cardinals 12% · tied 15% · Marlins 72%

Marlins earned it

Marlins deserved to win and did, beating Cardinals 5–3.

  • This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
  • Deserve-to-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.