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Mets at Marlins · May 22, 2026

Simulated win probability ("deserved to win")Mets 62% · tied 18% · Marlins 20%

Marlins stole one

Mets did more to deserve the win, but Marlins took it 2-1.

  • This is the quick view. The full recap, with batted balls, the luck ledger and pitcher lines, is not built for every game.
  • The simulator replays the game ten thousand times from each batted ball's exit velocity, launch angle and spray angle, and Deserve-to-Win is the share of replays each team wins.