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Mets at Marlins · May 22, 2026

Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Mets 62% · tied 18% · Marlins 20%

Marlins stole one

Mets did more to deserve the win, but Marlins took it 2–1.

  • This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
  • Deserve-to-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.