MLB Deserve-to-Win
Home
Games
Standings
Teams
Hitters
Pitchers
Tools
About
Home
Games
Standings
Teams
Hitters
Pitchers
Tools
About
Search players and teams
Loading…
One moment while the latest numbers come in.
Nationals @ Brewers, 04/11/2026 · MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
Apr 11, 2026
Nationals
3
Final
Game 823805
Brewers
1
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"
Nationals
60%
· tied 15%
·
Brewers
26%
Nationals earned it
Nationals deserved to win and did, beating Brewers 3–1.
This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.