MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Blue Jays @ Twins, 04/30/2026 · MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
Apr 30, 2026
Blue Jays
1
Final
Game 823714
Twins
7
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"
Blue Jays
14%
· tied 11%
·
Twins
76%
Twins earned it
Twins deserved to win and did, beating Blue Jays 7–1.
This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.