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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Marlins at Yankees · Apr 3, 2026

Marlins
2
Final
Yankees
8
Simulated win probability ("deserved to win")Marlins 1% · tied 1% · Yankees 98%

Yankees earned it

Yankees deserved to win and did, beating Marlins 8-2.

  • This is the quick view. The full recap, with batted balls, the luck ledger and pitcher lines, is not built for every game.
  • The simulator replays the game ten thousand times from each batted ball's exit velocity, launch angle and spray angle, and Deserve-to-Win is the share of replays each team wins.