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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Giants at Pirates · Sep 1, 2026

Giants
12
Final
Pirates
13
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Giants 45% · tied 11% · Pirates 44%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
12
13
Est. bases
18.0
19.8
Total bases
22
23
Home runs
1
1
Barrels
1
1
Walks/HBP
9
7
Strikeouts
8
8
GIDP
2
2
Stolen bases
0
1
Left on base
11
12
Errors
1
0

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Giants lead on deserved runs by 0.1.

Pirates deserved lead ↑
-50+5-0.1+1
Giants deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Pirates +1.6 (80% band 0.0 to +3.0) · this inning +1.6 deserved runs · actual Pirates +2Through inning 2: deserved Giants +0.6 (80% band -3.0 to +2.0) · this inning -2.1 deserved runs · actual Giants +3Through inning 3: deserved Pirates +4.3 (80% band +1.0 to +8.0) · this inning +4.8 deserved runs · actual Pirates +6Through inning 4: deserved Pirates +4.3 (80% band +1.0 to +8.0) · this inning +0.1 deserved runs · actual Pirates +6Through inning 5: deserved Pirates +3.3 (80% band -1.0 to +7.0) · this inning -1.0 deserved runs · actual Pirates +6Through inning 6: deserved Pirates +3.1 (80% band -1.0 to +7.0) · this inning -0.3 deserved runs · actual Pirates +4Through inning 7: deserved Pirates +3.7 (80% band 0.0 to +8.0) · this inning +0.6 deserved runs · actual Pirates +5Through inning 8: deserved Pirates +0.9 (80% band -4.0 to +5.0) · this inning -2.7 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 9: deserved Giants +0.1 (80% band -5.0 to +5.0) · this inning -1.0 deserved runs · actual Pirates +1123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualPirates sideGiants side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Giants
Pirates
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck diagnostic

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Giants
Lucky
Unlucky
Pirates
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Giants
Cesar Perdomo 15 BF
8.2
Braxton Roxby 8 BF
1.8
Pirates
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Giantspitching
Logan Webb2.0 IP · 18 BF · 1 K · 2 BB
4.1 bases cost

The Sinker got hit — 3 balls in play worth 2.5 expected bases. Overall 4.1 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Braxton Roxby1.0 IP · 8 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.8 bases saved

His Slider did the damage prevention — 1.1 bases better than average on 11 pitches. 3 of his 7 whiffs came on the Slider.

Sinker5 thrown · 2 whiffs
−0.3 bases saved
Cesar Perdomo4.0 IP · 15 BF · 4 K · 1 BB
1.4 bases cost

The Four-Seamer got hit — 4 balls in play worth 5.8 expected bases. His Slider did the damage prevention — 1.4 bases better than average on 23 pitches.

Trent Harris1.0 IP · 5 BF · 2 K · 1 BB
1.0 bases saved

His Cutter did the damage prevention — 0.8 bases better than average on 8 pitches.

Sinker4 thrown (20% tonight, season 24%)
+0.1 bases cost
Curveball1 thrown (5% tonight, season 20%)
+0.1 bases cost
Carson Seymour0.7 IP · 5 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
even

About an average night — +0.0 bases vs average on 5 batters.

Piratespitching
Paul Skenes4.7 IP · 25 BF · 4 K · 3 BB
1.7 bases cost

The Changeup got hit — 0 balls in play worth 0.0 expected bases. 5 of his 6 whiffs came on the Four-Seamer.

Slider8 thrown (8% tonight, season 8%)
0.0 bases
Changeup5 thrown (5% tonight, season 13%)
+0.9 bases cost
Yohan Ramírez0.7 IP · 6 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
0.6 bases saved

About an average night — −0.6 bases vs average on 6 batters.

Gregory Soto0.7 IP · 2 BF · 1 K · 0 BB
0.8 bases saved

Faced only 2 batters.

Slider2 thrown (29% tonight, season 28%) · 1 whiff
−0.5 bases saved
Sweeper2 thrown (29% tonight, season 17%)
+0.2 bases cost
Camilo Doval1.0 IP · 4 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
0.4 bases saved

His Slider did the damage prevention — 0.9 bases better than average on 5 pitches.

Slider5 thrown (38% tonight, season 29%) · 3 whiffs
−0.9 bases saved
Changeup1 thrown
−0.1 bases saved
Evan Sisk0.3 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 3 BB
1.6 bases cost

The Sinker got hit — 0 balls in play worth 0.0 expected bases. Overall 1.6 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Sinker9 thrown (41% tonight, season 31%) · 1 whiff
+0.9 bases cost
Four-Seamer8 thrown (36% tonight, season 17%)
+0.6 bases cost
Changeup2 thrown (9% tonight, season 9%)
0.0 bases
Luke Weaver0.7 IP · 4 BF · 0 K · 1 BB
1.0 bases cost

The Changeup got hit — 2 balls in play worth 1.3 expected bases.

Cutter2 thrown (14% tonight, season 15%)
−0.1 bases saved
Mason Montgomery1.0 IP · 5 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
1.9 bases cost

The Four-Seamer got hit — 3 balls in play worth 3.1 expected bases. Overall 1.9 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Sinker6 thrown (40% tonight, season 17%) · 1 whiff
+0.6 bases cost
Slider2 thrown (13% tonight, season 16%) · 1 whiff
−0.2 bases saved
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck diagnostic

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Giants
Lucky
Unlucky
Pirates
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Brandon Lowe hit it

Every ball Brandon Lowe hit this game, where it landed.

325'404'320'
EBlowhigh

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished +0.6 bases ahead of deserved.

6 PA4 H0 BB0 HBP0 K103.7 mph Hardest hit

Total basesActual: 7Deserved: 6.4
PA 1 vs Logan Webb: single — 1.1 deserved basesPA 2 vs Logan Webb: out — 0.2 deserved basesPA 3 vs Braxton Roxby: single — 0.5 deserved basesPA 4 vs Cesar Perdomo: out — 0.1 deserved basesPA 5 vs Cesar Perdomo: home run — 3.6 deserved basesPA 6 vs Carson Seymour: single — 1.0 deserved bases
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Breaking52%

0.7 deserved bases on contact

Fastball43%

4.6 deserved bases on contact

Offspeed5%

1.1 deserved bases on contact

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Cesar Perdomo
Actual
4.0
Deserved
3.7
Logan Webb
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.2
Carson Seymour
Actual
1.0
Deserved
1.0
Braxton Roxby
Actual
1.0
Deserved
0.5
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on PNC Park.

Giants33 BIP · 9 BB/HBP
325'404'320'
Pirates36 BIP · 7 BB/HBP
325'404'320'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. PNC Park — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information