MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Cardinals @ Padres, 05/07/2026 · MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
May 7, 2026
Cardinals
2
Final
Game 823306
Padres
1
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"
Cardinals
67%
· tied 14%
·
Padres
18%
Cardinals earned it
Cardinals deserved to win and did, beating Padres 2–1.
This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.