MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Cardinals @ Padres, 05/09/2026 · MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
May 9, 2026
Cardinals
2
Final
Game 823304
Padres
4
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"
Cardinals
31%
· tied 15%
·
Padres
54%
Padres earned it
Padres deserved to win and did, beating Cardinals 4–2.
This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.