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Phillies at Padres · May 26, 2026

Simulated win probability ("deserved to win")Phillies 95% · tied 3% · Padres 2%

Phillies earned it

Phillies deserved to win and did, beating Padres 4-3.

  • This is the quick view. The full recap, with batted balls, the luck ledger and pitcher lines, is not built for every game.
  • The simulator replays the game ten thousand times from each batted ball's exit velocity, launch angle and spray angle, and Deserve-to-Win is the share of replays each team wins.