MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Reds @ Rays, 04/22/2026 · MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
Apr 22, 2026
Reds
1
Final
Game 822993
Rays
6
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"
Reds
27%
· tied 15%
·
Rays
59%
Rays earned it
Rays deserved to win and did, beating Reds 6–1.
This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.