Skip to main content
MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games

Braves at Nationals · Sep 1, 2026

Braves
5
Final
Nationals
9
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"Braves 26% · tied 14% · Nationals 60%
How win probability is simulated
  • Win probability comes from resampling every batted ball thousands of times — using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.
  • It's the simulator's view of who "deserved" to win, regardless of the actual scoreboard.

Team comparison

Both team bars grow from the same left edge, scaled within each row — longer is more.

Runs
5
9
Est. bases
13.8
12.8
Total bases
16
18
Home runs
2
1
Barrels
2
2
Walks/HBP
1
7
Strikeouts
10
12
GIDP
1
0
Stolen bases
0
3
Left on base
3
10
Errors
1
0

Deserved run flow by inning

By the end the Nationals lead on deserved runs by 1.2.

Nationals deserved lead ↑
-20+2+4+6+1.2+4
Braves deserved lead ↓Through inning 1: deserved Nationals +0.1 (80% band 0.0 to 0.0) · this inning +0.1 deserved runs · actual evenThrough inning 2: deserved Nationals +0.4 (80% band -1.0 to +2.0) · this inning +0.3 deserved runs · actual Nationals +3Through inning 3: deserved Nationals +1.0 (80% band -1.0 to +3.0) · this inning +0.7 deserved runs · actual Nationals +3Through inning 4: deserved Nationals +0.9 (80% band -1.0 to +3.0) · this inning -0.2 deserved runs · actual Nationals +3Through inning 5: deserved Nationals +0.7 (80% band -2.0 to +3.0) · this inning -0.2 deserved runs · actual Nationals +3Through inning 6: deserved Nationals +1.0 (80% band -2.0 to +4.0) · this inning +0.3 deserved runs · actual Nationals +4Through inning 7: deserved Nationals +2.1 (80% band -1.0 to +5.0) · this inning +1.1 deserved runs · actual Nationals +6Through inning 8: deserved Nationals +1.1 (80% band -2.0 to +4.0) · this inning -1.1 deserved runs · actual Nationals +4Through inning 9: deserved Nationals +1.2 (80% band -2.0 to +5.0) · this inning +0.1 deserved runs · actual Nationals +4123456789

Inning

Deserved (mean)ActualNationals sideBraves side
How to read this chart
How the simulated “deserved” run differential built up inning by inning — shaded bands show the middle 50% and 80% of simulations, the grey steps show what actually happened. It breaks the headline deserved margin down inning by inning, so the endpoint lands on the headline verdict.

Batting

Bases created

Total bases each batter created (estimated bases from batted balls, plus one per walk).

Braves
Nationals
Yohandy Morales
6.4
How to read this chart
Ranked top to bottom. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each hitter created beyond a freely-available bench bat.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the bench bat any team could call up for free, so the scale puts a pinch-hitter and a full-game starter side by side: it measures bases produced against that baseline in the same number of plate appearances, not raw totals.

Batting luck diagnostic

Each batter's net luck: actual bases minus the bases their contact deserved.

Braves
Lucky
Unlucky
Nationals
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases — what contact like that usually earns, regardless of where it landed. Click a batter to see each ball and watch it on Baseball Savant.

Pitching

Bases given up

Total bases each pitcher allowed (estimated bases from balls in play, plus one per walk).

Braves
Blake Burkhalter 5 BF
2.2
Nationals
Jared Simpson 8 BF
2.0
How to read this chart
Sorted most to least. Grouped by team, longest first.

Bases above replacement

Bases each pitcher prevented beyond a freely-available replacement arm.

How to read this chart
“Replacement” is the arm any team could call up for free, and the comparison accounts for the batters each pitcher actually faced. Starters and relievers are held to separate baselines, because a reliever’s inning is the easier job.

Pitching matchup

Each staff’s pitchers side by side.

How to read this chart
Hover or tap the ⓘ on any metric for what it means, or click a row to see the per-pitcher breakdown.

How each pitcher performed

Each pitch type graded in bases saved or cost vs. an average pitcher in the same counts.

Bravespitching
AJ Smith-Shawver4.0 IP · 21 BF · 5 K · 3 BB
0.4 bases cost

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 1.1 bases better than average on 27 pitches. The Splitter got hit — 7 balls in play worth 5.0 expected bases.

Curveball7 thrown (8% tonight, season 7%) · 2 whiffs
+0.1 bases cost
Victor Mederos1.0 IP · 5 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
0.7 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 0.8 bases better than average on 12 pitches.

Cutter4 thrown (22% tonight, season 49%)
+0.2 bases cost
Splitter1 thrown
+0.2 bases cost
Blake Burkhalter1.0 IP · 5 BF · 1 K · 1 BB
even

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 0.8 bases better than average on 11 pitches. The Cutter got hit — 1 ball in play worth 0.9 expected bases.

Curveball6 thrown · 1 whiff
+0.1 bases cost
Brent Suter2.0 IP · 12 BF · 5 K · 2 BB
0.7 bases cost

The Four-Seamer got hit — 4 balls in play worth 3.7 expected bases. 5 of his 11 whiffs came on the Four-Seamer.

Sinker16 thrown (32% tonight, season 33%) · 1 whiff
+0.5 bases cost
Slider3 thrown (6% tonight, season 14%)
−0.1 bases saved
Nationalspitching
Jake Irvin4.0 IP · 18 BF · 5 K · 1 BB
0.3 bases cost

His Sweeper did the damage prevention — 1.6 bases better than average on 8 pitches. The Four-Seamer got hit — 8 balls in play worth 5.8 expected bases.

Curveball15 thrown (17% tonight, season 24%) · 1 whiff
−0.3 bases saved
Cutter9 thrown (10% tonight, season 11%) · 2 whiffs
−0.3 bases saved
Jared Simpson3.0 IP · 8 BF · 3 K · 0 BB
1.6 bases saved

His Four-Seamer did the damage prevention — 1.9 bases better than average on 18 pitches. Overall 1.6 bases better than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Slider3 thrown · 1 whiff
−0.5 bases saved
Clayton Beeter1.0 IP · 6 BF · 0 K · 0 BB
1.6 bases cost

The Slider got hit — 3 balls in play worth 3.7 expected bases. Overall 1.6 bases worse than an average pitcher facing the same counts.

Orlando Ribalta1.0 IP · 3 BF · 2 K · 0 BB
1.3 bases saved

Faced only 3 batters.

Slider4 thrown (50% tonight, season 39%) · 2 whiffs
−0.6 bases saved
Changeup1 thrown (13% tonight, season 16%) · 1 whiff
−0.3 bases saved
Lg avg pitcher = 0
How to read this chart
  • Every pitch is scored against the league: throwing a strike (or getting a whiff or weak contact) beats the average outcome from that count; balls and hard contact fall short of it.
  • “Saved” means fewer expected bases than an average pitcher facing the same counts; “cost” means more. Contact is judged by estimated bases, not luck.
  • This grades every pitch against an average pitcher. The “Bases above replacement” board higher up compares the whole outing to a freely available fill-in arm instead, so its totals read a few bases friendlier — same outing, different question.
  • Click a pitch row to watch the balls hit against it.

Pitching luck diagnostic

Each pitcher's net luck on contact: deserved bases against minus what actually scored.

Braves
Lucky
Unlucky
Nationals
Lucky
Unlucky
How to read this chart
“Deserved” is estimated bases on the opponents' contact. Unlucky means bloops and seeing-eye hits fell in; lucky means hard contact found gloves. Click a pitcher to see their biggest swings and watch them on Baseball Savant.

Player spotlight

Pick any player from this game to see what they actually did — every ball they hit, every pitch they saw or threw, and who they did damage against.

Where Yohandy Morales hit it

Every ball Yohandy Morales hit this game, where it landed.

No ball-tracking data for this game.

Cumulative bases through the game

Finished +0.6 bases ahead of deserved.

5 PA3 H0 BB0 HBP2 K

Total basesActual: 7Deserved: 6.4
PA 1 vs AJ Smith-Shawver: strikeoutPA 2 vs AJ Smith-Shawver: home run — 3.2 deserved basesPA 3 vs Victor Mederos: strikeoutPA 4 vs Brent Suter: double — 2.8 deserved basesPA 5 vs Brent Suter: single — 0.4 deserved bases
K
K
How to read this chart
Every plate appearance, actual bases vs. what their contact deserved. Hover a column for that plate appearance.

Pitch mix

Share of pitches seen by type, and how much damage they did on contact.

Fastball63%

3.2 deserved bases on contact

Offspeed37%

3.2 deserved bases on contact

Matchups vs pitchers

Actual vs. deserved bases against each opponent, biggest matchup first.

Brent Suter
Actual
3.0
Deserved
3.2
AJ Smith-Shawver
K
Actual
4.0
Deserved
3.2
Victor Mederos
K
Actual
0.0
Deserved
0.0
How to read this chart
The symbols beside each name are that matchup's plate appearances — BB walk, HBP hit by pitch, K strikeout, and a dot for a ball in play. Both bars share one scale across every row.

Batted balls

Every ball put in play in this game — where it landed and how many bases that kind of contact usually earns.

Where every ball landed

Every ball in play, split by team, on Nationals Park.

Braves24 BIP · 1 BB/HBP
336'406'335'
Nationals24 BIP · 7 BB/HBP
336'406'335'
EBlowhigh
Exit velosoft → hard
How to read this chart
Dot size scales with exit velocity; color shows estimated bases (EB), from pale slate (easy out) to dark teal (home-run territory). Tap a dot for its details, then use the Watch on Savant link to see the play. Nationals Park — outfield wall drawn from real park dimensions.

The hardest-hit contact of the game, ranked by estimated bases.

How to read this table
Tap a row for exact outcome odds and a Savant video link, or show all batted balls to sort by any column and filter by team or player.

Run distribution information