MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Blue Jays @ Red Sox, 04/10/2025 · MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
Apr 10, 2025
Blue Jays
3
Final
Game 778377
Red Sox
4
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"
Blue Jays
30%
· tied 15%
·
Red Sox
55%
Red Sox earned it
Red Sox deserved to win and did, beating Blue Jays 4–3.
This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.