MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Red Sox @ Guardians, 04/26/2025 · MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
Apr 26, 2025
Red Sox
7
Final
Game 778169
Guardians
3
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"
Red Sox
73%
· tied 10%
·
Guardians
17%
Red Sox earned it
Red Sox deserved to win and did, beating Guardians 7–3.
This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.