MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Blue Jays @ Rays, 09/18/2025 · MLB Deserve-to-Win
← All games
Sep 18, 2025
Blue Jays
0
Final
Game 776269
Rays
4
Simulated win probability — "deserved to win"
Blue Jays
12%
· tied 11%
·
Rays
77%
Rays earned it
Rays deserved to win and did, beating Blue Jays 4–0.
This is the quick view — the full play-by-play recap (batted balls, luck ledger, pitcher lines) isn't generated for every game.
Deserve-To-Win comes from resampling the game thousands of times, using launch angle, exit velocity, and ballpark factors.