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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Jonah Tong

2026
Mets· RHP · throws R· 15.0 IP· 4.80 ERA· 1.33 WHIP· 68 BF

Grade

How good he's been, and at what
Dbetter than 34% of pitchers at limiting bases
StarterStill Searching

Below league average across the board.

Tong has been below average at limiting damage

The simulator expects 0.465 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 34th percentile of qualified pitchers. The soft spot is Command (21st percentile).

68 batters faced · data through 2026-09-11.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size (not raw season stats), so farther out = better. Spokes are the metric itself; ↓ marks a rate where a LOWER number is better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles vs. 494 qualified pitchers — 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers pooled. He hasn't reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.

Plays like…

Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.

Caleb FergusonCardinalsGeorge SorianoCardinalsXzavion CurryMetsJonathan PintaroMets

Pitcher type

What kind of pitcher he is, next to the league

Arsenal

What he throws, and what it does

Jonah Tong mixes his four-seam fastball (41%) and changeup (31%). His best pitch has been the changeup, saving 6.6 bases per 100 thrown vs average.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

+9 bases better than a replacement arm this season

allowed 27 bases vs a replacement arm's 36 over the same batters faced

Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.

All pitches

2.3 bases saved vs league average, across 255 pitches — 0.9 per 100.

Four-Seam Fastball
41%
95.6 mph · RHP median 95.1
24% whiffs · Lg median 21%
cost 0.2 per 1000.2 total
Changeup
31%
87.3 mph · RHP median 87.1
35% whiffs · Lg median 30%
saved 6.6 per 1005.6 total
Cutter
21%
91.7 mph · RHP median 90.2
25% whiffs · Lg median 22%
cost 5.3 per 1003.1 total
Curveball
not charted
7%
80.1 mph · RHP median 81.2
—
—

His curveball isn't in the charts below — only 19 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.

How to read this chart
What they throw, how hard, and what misses bats — from pitch tracking, regular season only.

Mix by batter side

Four-Seam Fastball
42% vs LHH · RHP median 40%
39% vs RHH · RHP median 33%
Changeup
38% vs LHH · RHP median 29%
22% vs RHH · RHP median 12%
How to read this chart
How the mix shifts against lefty and righty bats. Medians are among right-handed pitchers who throw that pitch at least 3% of the time — between 111 and 371 of them, depending on the pitch. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.

By appearance

How the stuff has held up outing to outing

One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. His curveball isn't in these charts — only 19 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.

Platoon splits

How he fares against lefties and righties

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.042 EB/PA allowed (modeled).

50% probable range: +0.034 to +0.050

vs LHB40 PA0.491

vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.491 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.468 to 0.512, based on 40 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.385 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.455 EB/PA.

Raw vs LHB rate (0.385) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.

vs RHB28 PA0.449

vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.449 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.426 to 0.471, based on 28 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.474 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.438 EB/PA.

0.4160.4430.4690.4960.522
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.043). He allows more than the league median against both sides.

How to read this chart
  • Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
  • His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the simulator pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
  • “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
  • These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
  • Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.

Contact allowed

What hitters do when they connect

Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.

Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Where every ball hit off Jonah Tong landed this season.
hit · out
EBlowhigh
vs Jhonny PeredaHome run
EV 98 mph · LA 27° · EB 3.3
06/02 vs Mariners
vs Graham PauleyHome run
EV 103 mph · LA 23° · EB 2.8
09/07 vs Marlins
vs Javier SanojaTriple
EV 104 mph · LA 14° · EB 1.6
09/07 vs Marlins
vs Randy ArozarenaOutRobbed
EV 104 mph · LA 16° · EB 1.6
06/02 vs Mariners
vs Luke RaleyOut
EV 89 mph · LA 11° · EB 1.3
06/02 vs Mariners

Luck check

Escaped damage once — a crushed ball the simulator scores as a near-certain hit died in a glove behind him.

vs Randy ArozarenaOutRobbed
EV 104 mph · LA 16° · EB 1.6
06/02 vs Mariners

Burned once — a ball with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.

vs Jakob MarseeSingleCheap hit
EV 90 mph · LA 0° · EB 0.1 · xBA .115
09/07 vs Marlins
How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB) — what the contact was worth, regardless of what the defense did with it. So a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Best games

His biggest outings this year

Best games

His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.

Multi-season trends · Jonah Tong

HR allowed% down, BB% up, K% down vs last season

Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.