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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Brett Kerry

2026
Angels· RHP · throws R· 13.2 IP· 3.95 ERA· 0.95 WHIP· 54 batters faced

Grade

His grade shows how good he has been, and at what.
B+better than 75% of qualified pitchers at limiting bases
StarterPower Arm

Misses bats in bunches; lives with the walks.

Kerry is comfortably above average at limiting bases

The simulator expects him to allow 0.439 bases per batter faced, better than 75% of qualified pitchers. His best skill is limiting walks (86th percentile).

His grade rests on 54 batters faced, with data through 2026-09-27.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size, not a raw season stat, and farther out is better. A ↓ marks a stat where a lower number is better, and its spoke is flipped so farther out still means better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles compare him with 517 qualified pitchers, those with 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers together. He has not reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.

Plays like…

Each of these pitchers shares his archetype and sits closest to him in xEB/PA.

Peyton GrayRangersGeorge KirbyMarinersSteven CruzRoyalsAlex McFarlanePhillies

Pitcher type

This map shows what kind of pitcher he is, next to the league.

Arsenal

These cards show what he throws and what each pitch does.

Brett Kerry leans on his four-seam fastball (48% of pitches). His best pitch has been the four-seam fastball, saving 1.6 bases per 100 thrown against league average.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

+8 bases better than a replacement arm this season

He allowed about 24 estimated bases, against a replacement arm's 32 over the same batters faced.

Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.

All pitches

He saved 0.1 bases against league average across 159 pitches, or 0.1 per 100 pitches.

Four-Seam Fastball
48%
91.6 mph · RHP median 95.1
11% whiffs · Lg median 21%
saved 1.6 per 1001.6 total
Slider
27%
85.8 mph · RHP median 86.9
34% whiffs · Lg median 33%
cost 2.5 per 1001.5 total
Changeup
not charted
22%
81.4 mph · RHP median 87.1
—
—

His changeup isn't in the charts below, because only 47 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.

He rarely throws his curveball and sweeper (3% of his pitches combined).

How to read this chart
Each row is a pitch he throws at least 3% of the time, from pitch tracking in the regular season. The bar is how often he throws it, then its average velocity and its whiff rate, the share of swings that miss. Beside the velocity and the whiff rate is the median for that pitch, among pitchers of his hand for velocity and across the league for whiffs. More whiffs are better for a pitcher, while usage and velocity describe how he pitches. The Bases vs average bars score each pitch against a league-average pitch in the same count, and a bar to the left (saved) is better.

Mix by batter side

Four-Seam Fastball
47% vs LHH · RHP median 40%
49% vs RHH · RHP median 33%
How to read this chart
Each row shows how often he throws a pitch to left-handed hitters (LHH) and right-handed hitters (RHH), next to the median for pitchers of his hand (RHP median). Medians come from the 384 right-handed pitchers who throw that pitch at least 3% of the time. A mix is a plan, so a higher or lower share is neither better nor worse. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.

By appearance

These charts follow his velocity, movement and mix from outing to outing.

These charts follow his velocity, movement and pitch mix one outing at a time, and each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. The velocity and movement charts also shade the middle of the league for scale. His changeup isn't in these charts, because only 47 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.

Platoon splits

This section splits his results against lefties and righties.

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

He handles righty bats better than lefty bats, by 0.042 EB/PA allowed.

50% probable range: +0.034 to +0.050

vs LHB29 PA0.473

vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.473 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.451 to 0.496, based on 29 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.393 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.451 EB/PA.

His raw rate vs LHB (0.393) is off this scale. Small samples can push a raw rate this far, which is why the dot, the shrunk estimate, is the number to trust.

vs RHB25 PA0.431

vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.431 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.408 to 0.454, based on 25 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.417 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.435 EB/PA.

0.3980.4250.4520.4790.506
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

His split is about typical for a righty arm (median 0.042). Against lefty bats he allows more than the league median, which is a real platoon weakness.

How to read this chart
  • Each dot is his estimate against that side, with its 50% probable range as the bar. These are bases allowed, so lower is better.
  • The diamond is his raw rate, which small samples make noisy, so the simulator pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy value.
  • The dashed tick is the league median, and the shaded strip is the middle half of pitchers with 100 or more batters faced.
  • The two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed, not the xEB/PA headline.
  • Tap or hover a mark for its number. LHB and RHB are left- and right-handed batters. More on the About page

Contact allowed

These cards show what hitters do when they make contact.

Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's also where they do the most damage.

Pull side and opposite field depend on which side each batter hits from, so this pools every hitter he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Every ball hit off Brett Kerry this season is drawn where it landed.
hit · out
EBlowhigh
vs Jake BauersHome run
108 mph · 25° · worth 3.8 bases
08/01 vs Brewers
vs Javier SanojaDouble
102 mph · 23° · worth 2.2 bases
08/08 vs Marlins
vs Griffin ConineSingle
108 mph · 13° · worth 1.4 bases
08/08 vs Marlins
vs William ContrerasOut
98 mph · 33° · worth 1.4 bases
08/01 vs Brewers
vs Jakob MarseeTriple
100 mph · 2° · worth 1.2 bases
08/08 vs Marlins
How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB), what the contact was worth no matter what the defense did with it. Darker means more bases, so a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Best games

These are his biggest outings this season.

Best games

These are his best outings this season, ranked by bases saved against a replacement arm.