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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Brett Kerry

2026
Angels· RHP · throws R· 13.2 IP· 3.95 ERA· 0.95 WHIP· 54 BF

Grade

How good he's been, and at what
Bbetter than 69% of pitchers at limiting bases
StarterCommand Artist

Rarely walks anyone and lets the defense work.

Kerry sits right around league average

The simulator expects 0.442 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 69th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Command (87th percentile).

54 batters faced · data through 2026-09-11.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size (not raw season stats), so farther out = better. Spokes are the metric itself; ↓ marks a rate where a LOWER number is better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles vs. 494 qualified pitchers — 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers pooled. He hasn't reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.

Plays like…

Same archetype, nearest by rate — the pitchers whose profile looks most like this one.

Nick MartinezRaysMichael WachaRoyalsShane McClanahanRaysBlake WeimanAngels

Pitcher type

What kind of pitcher he is, next to the league

Arsenal

What he throws, and what it does

Brett Kerry leans on his four-seam fastball (48% of pitches). His best pitch has been the four-seam fastball, saving 1.6 bases per 100 thrown vs average.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

+5 bases better than a replacement arm this season

allowed 24 bases vs a replacement arm's 29 over the same batters faced

Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.

All pitches

0.1 bases saved vs league average, across 159 pitches — 0.1 per 100.

Four-Seam Fastball
48%
91.6 mph · RHP median 95.1
11% whiffs · Lg median 21%
saved 1.6 per 1001.6 total
Slider
27%
85.8 mph · RHP median 86.9
34% whiffs · Lg median 33%
cost 2.5 per 1001.5 total
Changeup
not charted
22%
81.4 mph · RHP median 87.1
—
—

His changeup isn't in the charts below — only 47 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.

Rarely used: curveball, sweeper (3%)

How to read this chart
What they throw, how hard, and what misses bats — from pitch tracking, regular season only.

Mix by batter side

Four-Seam Fastball
47% vs LHH · RHP median 40%
49% vs RHH · RHP median 33%
How to read this chart
How the mix shifts against lefty and righty bats. Medians are among right-handed pitchers who throw that pitch at least 3% of the time — 371 of them. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.

By appearance

How the stuff has held up outing to outing

One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. His changeup isn't in these charts — only 47 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.

Platoon splits

How he fares against lefties and righties

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.042 EB/PA allowed (modeled).

50% probable range: +0.034 to +0.051

vs LHB29 PA0.473

vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.473 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.451 to 0.494, based on 29 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.393 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.455 EB/PA.

Raw vs LHB rate (0.393) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.

vs RHB25 PA0.431

vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.431 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.410 to 0.452, based on 25 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.417 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.438 EB/PA.

0.3990.4260.4520.4780.505
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.043). Against lefty bats he allows more than the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.

How to read this chart
  • Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
  • His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the simulator pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
  • “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
  • These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
  • Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.

Contact allowed

What hitters do when they connect

Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.

Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Where every ball hit off Brett Kerry landed this season.
hit · out
EBlowhigh
vs Jake BauersHome run
EV 108 mph · LA 25° · EB 3.8
08/01 vs Brewers
vs Javier SanojaDouble
EV 102 mph · LA 23° · EB 2.2
08/08 vs Marlins
vs Griffin ConineSingle
EV 108 mph · LA 13° · EB 1.4
08/08 vs Marlins
vs William ContrerasOut
EV 98 mph · LA 33° · EB 1.4
08/01 vs Brewers
vs Jakob MarseeTriple
EV 100 mph · LA 2° · EB 1.2
08/08 vs Marlins
How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB) — what the contact was worth, regardless of what the defense did with it. So a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Best games

His biggest outings this year

Best games

His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.