Brandon Pfaadt
2026Grade
Rarely walks anyone and lets the defense work.
Pfaadt is comfortably above average at preventing runs
The simulator expects 0.429 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 80th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Command (91st percentile). The soft spot is Strikeouts (15th percentile).
403 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Brandon Pfaadt.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Brandon Pfaadt | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .435 | .528 | 80th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 6% | 9% | 91st |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 18% | 22% | 15th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Brandon Pfaadt mixes his four-seam fastball (26%) and sinker (18%). His best pitch has been the cutter, saving 4.6 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 159 bases vs a replacement arm's 224 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
20.9 bases saved vs league average, across 1,476 pitches — 1.4 per 100.
Rarely used: slider (0%)
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Mix by batter side
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Brandon Pfaadt's pitch movement, 2026
His Sweeper has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape; his other 5 have not.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.040 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.032 to +0.049
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.447 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.428 to 0.465, based on 224 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.435 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.407 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.388 to 0.426, based on 179 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.356 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.356) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040). He allows less than the league median against both sides, so his weaker side is still a strength — not a hole.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage 2 times — crushed balls the simulator scores as near-certain hits that died in gloves behind him.
Burned 14 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Batters have been credited about 6 more bases than their contact off Brandon Pfaadt earned — his results have run unlucky so far.
over 306 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 3.39 · WHIP 1.14 · BABIP against 0.261 (Lg median 0.286)
Times through order
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs PadresAug 3, 2026
25 BF · 3 K, 1 BB, 5 H
- Bases allowed
- 6.3
- Above replacement
- +7.6
- vs TigersMar 31, 2026
24 BF · 3 K, 1 BB, 6 H
- Bases allowed
- 6.0
- Above replacement
- +7.4
- vs PadresJul 6, 2026
19 BF · 6 K, 4 H
- Bases allowed
- 3.4
- Above replacement
- +7.2
- vs PiratesJul 28, 2026
28 BF · 4 K, 1 BB, 6 H
- Bases allowed
- 8.7
- Above replacement
- +6.9
- vs BravesAug 14, 2026
23 BF · 7 K, 2 H
- Bases allowed
- 6.1
- Above replacement
- +6.7
Trends
Multi-season trends · Brandon Pfaadt
xEB/PA down, HR allowed% down, BB% up, K% down, Barrel% against down, Hard-hit% against down vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.