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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Ken Waldichuk

2026
Nationals· LHP · throws L· 9.1 IP· 6.75 ERA· 1.50 WHIP· 41 BF

Grade

How good he's been, and at what
Reliever

A profile still coming into focus

Not enough modeled data yet to judge his run prevention with confidence.

41 batters faced · data through 2026-09-11.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size (not raw season stats), so farther out = better. Spokes are the metric itself; ↓ marks a rate where a LOWER number is better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles vs. 494 qualified pitchers — 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers pooled. He hasn't reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.

Pitcher type

What kind of pitcher he is, next to the league

Arsenal

What he throws, and what it does

Ken Waldichuk mixes his curveball (42%) and four-seam fastball (33%). His best pitch has been the curveball, saving 0.4 bases per 100 thrown vs average.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

+2 bases better than a replacement arm this season

allowed 19 bases vs a replacement arm's 21 over the same batters faced

Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.

All pitches

0.2 bases saved vs league average, across 61 pitches — 0.3 per 100.

Curveball
42%
81.5 mph · LHP median 79.7
—
saved 0.4 per 1000.2 total
Four-Seam Fastball
not charted
33%
93.2 mph · LHP median 93.6
—
—
Cutter
not charted
18%
87.7 mph · LHP median 87.9
—
—
Sweeper
not charted
7%
84.9 mph · LHP median 81.2
—
—

Only his curveball is in the charts below — the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.

Rarely used: changeup (1%)

How to read this chart
What they throw, how hard, and what misses bats — from pitch tracking, regular season only.

By appearance

How the stuff has held up outing to outing

One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. Only his curveball is in these charts — the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.

Platoon splits

How he fares against lefties and righties

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

Better vs LHB than vs RHB by 0.038 EB/PA allowed (modeled).

50% probable range: +0.028 to +0.047

vs LHB19 PA0.457

vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.457 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.434 to 0.479, based on 19 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.481 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.455 EB/PA.

vs RHB21 PA0.495

vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.495 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.472 to 0.517, based on 21 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.547 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.438 EB/PA.

Raw vs RHB rate (0.547) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.

0.4250.4500.4750.5010.526
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

About the typical split for a lefty arm (median 0.038). Against righty bats he allows more than the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.

How to read this chart
  • Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
  • His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the simulator pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
  • “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
  • These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
  • Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.

Contact allowed

What hitters do when they connect

Batters go to the pull side off him most often, but the hardest contact goes up the middle.

Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Where every ball hit off Ken Waldichuk landed this season.
hit · out
EBlowhigh
vs Ramón UríasHome run
EV 107 mph · LA 26° · EB 3.6
04/06 vs Cardinals
vs Kyle TuckerHome run
EV 102 mph · LA 33° · EB 3.0
04/03 vs Dodgers
vs Jordan WalkerHome run
EV 104 mph · LA 32° · EB 2.0
04/06 vs Cardinals
vs Jake BauersSingle
EV 111 mph · LA 7° · EB 1.1
04/12 vs Brewers
vs Matt ShawOut
EV 71 mph · LA 18° · EB 0.7
03/28 vs Cubs
How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB) — what the contact was worth, regardless of what the defense did with it. So a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Times through order

What happens the third time they see him

Best games

His biggest outings this year

Best games

His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.

Multi-season trends · Ken Waldichuk

HR allowed% up, BB% up vs his previous season

Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.