Matt Wilkinson
2026Grade
Misses bats in bunches; lives with the walks.
Wilkinson is comfortably above average at preventing runs
The simulator expects 0.436 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 78th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Command (91st percentile). The soft spot is HR Suppression (8th percentile).
110 batters faced · data through 2026-09-27.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Matt Wilkinson.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
League best:K% − BB% Jacob Misiorowski (26.8%)Hard-hit% against Blake Snell (29.0%)
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| Matt Wilkinson | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .450 | .527 | 78th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 7% | 9% | 91st |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 21% | 22% | 29th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Matt Wilkinson leans on his four-seam fastball (57% of pitches). His best pitch has been the four-seam fastball, saving 4.5 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 45 bases vs a replacement arm's 64 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
11.6 bases saved vs league average, across 396 pitches — 2.9 per 100.
His cutter isn't in the charts below — only 23 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.
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Mix by batter side
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Matt Wilkinson's pitch movement, 2026
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. His cutter isn't in these charts — only 23 of them were tracked with velocity and movement data this season.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs LHB than vs RHB by 0.039 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.030 to +0.047
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.422 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.400 to 0.444, based on 31 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.235 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.451 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.235) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.460 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.440 to 0.483, based on 79 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.455 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.435 EB/PA.
About the typical split for a lefty arm (median 0.038). Against righty bats he allows more than the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the simulator pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the pull side.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Burned 2 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Results have matched the contact quality — batters have been credited about what they earned off Matt Wilkinson.
over 85 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 3.58 · WHIP 0.98 · BABIP against 0.212 (Lg median 0.287)
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs DodgersSep 20, 2026
18 BF · 6 K, 3 H
- Bases allowed
- 2.4
- Above replacement
- +8.2
- vs D-backsAug 29, 2026
22 BF · 4 K, 2 BB, 3 H
- Bases allowed
- 7.4
- Above replacement
- +5.5
- vs PadresSep 13, 2026
10 BF · 2 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.5
- Above replacement
- +3.7
- vs CardinalsSep 9, 2026
7 BF · 2 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.2
- Above replacement
- +2.5
- vs GuardiansAug 19, 2026
7 BF · 0 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 1.8
- Above replacement
- +1.9