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MLB Deserve-to-Win
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Shane Smith

2026
White Sox· RHP · throws R· 8.1 IP· 10.80 ERA· 2.52 WHIP· 49 batters faced

Grade

His grade shows how good he has been, and at what.
Starter

His grade is not ready yet

The simulator does not have enough data yet to grade how well he limits bases.

His grade rests on 49 batters faced, with data through 2026-09-27.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size, not a raw season stat, and farther out is better. A ↓ marks a stat where a lower number is better, and its spoke is flipped so farther out still means better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles compare him with 517 qualified pitchers, those with 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers together. He has not reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.

Pitcher type

This map shows what kind of pitcher he is, next to the league.

Arsenal

These cards show what he throws and what each pitch does.

Shane Smith mixes his four-seam fastball (33%) and curveball (24%). His best pitch has been the curveball, saving 1.7 bases per 100 thrown against league average.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

+10 bases better than a replacement arm this season

He allowed about 19 estimated bases, against a replacement arm's 29 over the same batters faced.

Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.

All pitches

He cost 0.4 bases against league average across 127 pitches, or 0.3 per 100 pitches.

Four-Seam Fastball
33%
95.3 mph · RHP median 95.1
—
cost 1.8 per 1001.3 total
Curveball
24%
82.4 mph · RHP median 81.2
—
saved 1.7 per 1000.9 total
Changeup
not charted
18%
90.3 mph · RHP median 87.1
—
—
Sinker
not charted
14%
96.4 mph · RHP median 94.7
—
—
Slider
not charted
11%
90.5 mph · RHP median 86.9
—
—

Only his four-seam fastball and curveball are in the charts below, because the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.

How to read this chart
Each row is a pitch he throws at least 3% of the time, from pitch tracking in the regular season. The bar is how often he throws it, then its average velocity and its whiff rate, the share of swings that miss. Beside the velocity and the whiff rate is the median for that pitch, among pitchers of his hand for velocity and across the league for whiffs. More whiffs are better for a pitcher, while usage and velocity describe how he pitches. The Bases vs average bars score each pitch against a league-average pitch in the same count, and a bar to the left (saved) is better.

Mix by batter side

Four-Seam Fastball
37% vs LHH · RHP median 40%
28% vs RHH · RHP median 33%
How to read this chart
Each row shows how often he throws a pitch to left-handed hitters (LHH) and right-handed hitters (RHH), next to the median for pitchers of his hand (RHP median). Medians come from the 384 right-handed pitchers who throw that pitch at least 3% of the time. A mix is a plan, so a higher or lower share is neither better nor worse. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.

By appearance

These charts follow his velocity, movement and mix from outing to outing.

These charts follow his velocity, movement and pitch mix one outing at a time, and each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. The velocity and movement charts also shade the middle of the league for scale. Only his four-seam fastball and curveball are in these charts, because the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.

Platoon splits

This section splits his results against lefties and righties.

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

He handles righty bats better than lefty bats, by 0.041 EB/PA allowed.

50% probable range: +0.033 to +0.050

vs LHB26 PA0.551

vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.551 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.529 to 0.574, based on 26 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.420 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.451 EB/PA.

vs RHB23 PA0.510

vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.510 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.487 to 0.532, based on 23 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.522 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.435 EB/PA.

0.4180.4610.5040.5470.590
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

His split is about typical for a righty arm (median 0.042). He allows more than the league median against both sides.

How to read this chart
  • Each dot is his estimate against that side, with its 50% probable range as the bar. These are bases allowed, so lower is better.
  • The diamond is his raw rate, which small samples make noisy, so the simulator pulls the dot toward a more trustworthy value.
  • The dashed tick is the league median, and the shaded strip is the middle half of pitchers with 100 or more batters faced.
  • The two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed, not the xEB/PA headline.
  • Tap or hover a mark for its number. LHB and RHB are left- and right-handed batters. More on the About page

Contact allowed

These cards show what hitters do when they make contact.

Batters go up the middle off him most often, but they do the most damage to the pull side.

Pull side and opposite field depend on which side each batter hits from, so this pools every hitter he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Every ball hit off Shane Smith this season is drawn where it landed.
hit · out
EBlowhigh
vs Connor NorbyDouble
70 mph · 23° · worth 1.7 bases
04/01 vs Marlins
vs Liam HicksHome run
99 mph · 40° · worth 1.3 bases
04/01 vs Marlins
vs Xavier EdwardsSingle
97 mph · 14° · worth 1.1 bases
04/01 vs Marlins
vs William ContrerasDouble
102 mph · 4° · worth 1.1 bases
03/26 vs Brewers
vs Brice TurangDouble
101 mph · 19° · worth 1.0 bases
03/26 vs Brewers

Luck check

How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB), what the contact was worth no matter what the defense did with it. Darker means more bases, so a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Times through the order

These charts show what happens as hitters see him a second and third time.

Best games

These are his biggest outings this season.

Best games

These are his best outings this season, ranked by bases saved against a replacement arm.

Multi-season trends · Shane Smith

Compared with last season, his HR allowed% is down and his BB% is up.

Actual rates show what happened on the field, season by season.