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Shane Smith

2026
White Sox· RHP · throws R· 8.1 IP· 10.80 ERA· 2.52 WHIP· 49 BF

Grade

How good he's been, and at what
Starter

A profile still coming into focus

Not enough modeled data yet to judge his run prevention with confidence.

49 batters faced · data through 2026-09-11.

How to read this chart
Each spoke is a skill estimate adjusted for sample size (not raw season stats), so farther out = better. Spokes are the metric itself; ↓ marks a rate where a LOWER number is better. The middle ring marks the league median and the outer ring the league best. Percentiles vs. 494 qualified pitchers — 100+ batters faced, starters and relievers pooled. He hasn't reached that bar himself, so he is measured against them rather than counted among them.

Pitcher type

What kind of pitcher he is, next to the league

Arsenal

What he throws, and what it does

Shane Smith mixes his four-seam fastball (33%) and curveball (24%). His best pitch has been the curveball, saving 1.7 bases per 100 thrown vs average.

Pitch mix & swing-and-miss

+7 bases better than a replacement arm this season

allowed 19 bases vs a replacement arm's 26 over the same batters faced

Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.

All pitches

0.4 bases cost vs league average, across 127 pitches — 0.3 per 100.

Four-Seam Fastball
33%
95.3 mph · RHP median 95.1
—
cost 1.8 per 1001.3 total
Curveball
24%
82.4 mph · RHP median 81.2
—
saved 1.7 per 1000.9 total
Changeup
not charted
18%
90.3 mph · RHP median 87.1
—
—
Sinker
not charted
14%
96.4 mph · RHP median 94.7
—
—
Slider
not charted
11%
90.5 mph · RHP median 86.9
—
—

Only his four-seam fastball and curveball are in the charts below — the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.

How to read this chart
What they throw, how hard, and what misses bats — from pitch tracking, regular season only.

Mix by batter side

Four-Seam Fastball
37% vs LHH · RHP median 40%
28% vs RHH · RHP median 33%
How to read this chart
How the mix shifts against lefty and righty bats. Medians are among right-handed pitchers who throw that pitch at least 3% of the time — 371 of them. Overall results by batter side are under Platoon splits.

By appearance

How the stuff has held up outing to outing

One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart. Only his four-seam fastball and curveball are in these charts — the rest were tracked too rarely to plot.

Platoon splits

How he fares against lefties and righties

Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)

Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.042 EB/PA allowed (modeled).

50% probable range: +0.034 to +0.050

vs LHB26 PA0.493

vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.493 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.470 to 0.515, based on 26 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.420 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.455 EB/PA.

vs RHB23 PA0.451

vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.451 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.426 to 0.472, based on 23 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.522 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.438 EB/PA.

0.4160.4430.4710.4980.525
← betterworse →
Below league medianAbove50% probable rangeHis raw rateMiddle half of the league

About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.043). He allows more than the league median against both sides.

How to read this chart
  • Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
  • His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the simulator pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
  • “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
  • These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
  • Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.

Contact allowed

What hitters do when they connect

Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the pull side.

Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.

Batted balls allowed

Where every ball hit off Shane Smith landed this season.
hit · out
EBlowhigh
vs Connor NorbyDouble
EV 70 mph · LA 23° · EB 1.7
04/01 vs Marlins
vs Liam HicksHome run
EV 99 mph · LA 40° · EB 1.3
04/01 vs Marlins
vs Xavier EdwardsSingle
EV 97 mph · LA 14° · EB 1.1
04/01 vs Marlins
vs William ContrerasDouble
EV 102 mph · LA 4° · EB 1.1
03/26 vs Brewers
vs Brice TurangDouble
EV 101 mph · LA 19° · EB 1.0
03/26 vs Brewers

Luck check

Burned once — a ball with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.

vs Graham PauleyDoubleCheap hit
EV 88 mph · LA 36° · EB 0.4 · xBA .162
04/01 vs Marlins
How to read this chart
Dot color is estimated bases (EB) — what the contact was worth, regardless of what the defense did with it. So a dark hollow ring in the outfield is a crushed ball his defense ran down. Tap or hover a dot or a row to link the two, and use the ▶ links to watch a play on Baseball Savant.

Times through order

What happens the third time they see him

Best games

His biggest outings this year

Best games

His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.

Multi-season trends · Shane Smith

HR allowed% down, BB% up vs last season

Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.