Spencer Strider
2026Grade
Below league average across the board.
Strider is getting hit harder than most pitchers
The simulator expects 0.469 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 28th percentile of qualified pitchers. His standout tool is Strikeouts (92nd percentile). The soft spot is HR Suppression (5th percentile).
165 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Spencer Strider.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Spencer Strider | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .661 | .528 | 28th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 12% | 9% | 22nd |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 25% | 22% | 92nd |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Spencer Strider leans on his four-seam fastball (48% of pitches). His best pitch has been the changeup, saving 2.6 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 84 bases vs a replacement arm's 92 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
10.9 bases cost vs league average, across 691 pitches — 1.6 per 100.
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Mix by batter side
Compared with the league, his four-seam fastball tilts 18 points more toward righties.
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Spencer Strider's pitch movement, 2026
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.040 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.032 to +0.049
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.451 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.430 to 0.472, based on 107 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.556 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.556) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.411 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.390 to 0.432, based on 59 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.445 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040).
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go to the pull side off him most often, and that's where the hardest contact comes from.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage once — a crushed ball the simulator scores as a near-certain hit died in a glove behind him.
Burned once — a ball with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Batters have been credited about 6 more bases than their contact off Spencer Strider earned — his results have run unlucky so far.
over 98 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 5.31 · WHIP 1.36 · BABIP against 0.270 (Lg median 0.286)
Times through order
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs DodgersMay 9, 2026
21 BF · 8 K, 2 BB, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 7.7
- Above replacement
- +4.0
- vs Red SoxMay 15, 2026
18 BF · 4 K, 3 BB, 3 H
- Bases allowed
- 8.0
- Above replacement
- +2.0
- vs PiratesJun 6, 2026
21 BF · 3 K, 2 BB, 5 H
- Bases allowed
- 9.9
- Above replacement
- +1.7
- vs MarlinsMay 21, 2026
24 BF · 9 K, 2 BB, 4 H, 3 HR
- Bases allowed
- 11.8
- Above replacement
- +1.5
- vs RedsMay 31, 2026
24 BF · 8 K, 2 BB, 7 H
- Bases allowed
- 12.3
- Above replacement
- +1.1
Trends
Multi-season trends · Spencer Strider
HR allowed% up, BB% up, K% up, Hard-hit% against down, GB% against down, FB% against up vs last season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.