Trevor Richards
2026Grade
Misses bats in bunches; lives with the walks.
Richards sits right around league average
The simulator expects 0.445 bases allowed per batter faced against him — better than 64th percentile of qualified pitchers. The soft spot is HR Suppression (28th percentile). Short relief stints inflate strikeout rates a touch, so read the Strikeouts spoke with that in mind.
251 batters faced · data through 2026-08-22.
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Plays like…
Same archetype, nearest by rate — pick one to see him side by side with Trevor Richards.
Pitcher type
Pitcher type
Where he sits among qualified pitchers on the two skills that separate styles.
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| Trevor Richards | League median | Percentile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bases per ball in play(lower = better) | .530 | .528 | 64th |
| Walk rate(lower = better) | 8% | 9% | 67th |
| Strikeout rate(higher = better) | 22% | 22% | 55th |
100th percentile = best in MLB.
Arsenal
Trevor Richards leans on his four-seam fastball (63% of pitches). His best pitch has been the slider, saving 3.1 bases per 100 thrown vs average.
Pitch mix & swing-and-miss
allowed 113 bases vs a replacement arm's 129 over the same batters faced
Replacement level is per-batter and can't be split by pitch type, so the bars below use league average.
2.5 bases saved vs league average, across 946 pitches — 0.3 per 100.
Rarely used: sinker, sweeper (0%)
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Mix by batter side
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Trevor Richards's pitch movement, 2026
His Slider has moved 2+ inches from its early-season shape; his other 2 have not.
Compared with his own earlier outings this season, not with other pitchers — and after taking out the drift every pitch in the league shows through midsummer.
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By appearance
One point per outing — how his velocity, movement, and pitch mix have moved across the season, with league context for scale. Each pitch keeps the same color in every chart.
Platoon splits
Platoon splits (EB/PA allowed)
Better vs RHB than vs LHB by 0.041 EB/PA allowed (modeled).
50% probable range: +0.033 to +0.050
vs LHB: shrunk estimate 0.470 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.451 to 0.490, based on 120 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.521 EB/PA. League median vs LHB: 0.454 EB/PA.
Raw vs LHB rate (0.521) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
vs RHB: shrunk estimate 0.429 EB/PA, 50% probable range 0.408 to 0.448, based on 132 plate appearances. Raw (unshrunk) rate: 0.377 EB/PA. League median vs RHB: 0.440 EB/PA.
Raw vs RHB rate (0.377) is off this scale — small samples like this are exactly why the shrunk estimate (the dot) is the trustworthy number, not the raw one.
About the typical split for a righty arm (median 0.040). Against lefty bats he allows more than the league median — a genuine platoon vulnerability.
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- Tap or hover any mark for its number, or tab to a row for all of them.
- His raw rate is the unshrunk number against that side — small samples make it noisy, which is why the model pulls his estimate toward a more trustworthy value.
- “Middle half of the league” is the 25th–75th percentile of all pitchers against that side.
- These are bases allowed, so lower is better. Weighted by how often he faces each side, the two splits average back to his modeled overall EB/PA allowed — not the xEB/PA headline at the top of the page, which folds in strikeouts and walks differently.
- Shrunk splits beat raw splits on held-out seasons, most decisively at low batters-faced counts (relievers especially), and converge with the raw numbers as exposure builds.
Contact allowed
Batters go up the middle off him most often, but the hardest contact goes to the pull side.
Pull and oppo are relative to each batter's stance, so this pools all the hitters he faced.
Batted balls allowed
Luck check
Escaped damage 4 times — crushed balls the simulator scores as near-certain hits that died in gloves behind him.
Burned 4 times — balls with a hit probability under 20% that found grass anyway.
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Earned vs. actual
Batters have been credited about 5 fewer bases than their contact off Trevor Richards earned — his results have run fortunate so far.
over 176 balls in play · walks and strikeouts excluded on both sides
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ERA 3.38 · WHIP 1.11 · BABIP against 0.239 (Lg median 0.286)
Best games
Best games
His best outings this season by bases saved vs a replacement arm.
- vs YankeesJul 27, 2026
7 BF · 4 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.5
- Above replacement
- +3.1
- vs DodgersJun 12, 2026
6 BF · 2 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.2
- Above replacement
- +2.9
- vs GiantsMay 23, 2026
9 BF · 1 K, 1 BB, 2 H, 1 HR
- Bases allowed
- 1.9
- Above replacement
- +2.7
- vs RedsAug 13, 2026
9 BF · 2 K, 1 H
- Bases allowed
- 2.1
- Above replacement
- +2.5
- vs TwinsJun 2, 2026
5 BF · 1 K
- Bases allowed
- 0.6
- Above replacement
- +2.0
Trends
Multi-season trends · Trevor Richards
HR allowed% up, BB% down, Barrel% against up, GB% against down vs his previous season
Actual rates — what happened on the field, season by season.